Lack of Firepower, Manpower Dooms Ukraine as Zelensky May Seek ‘Escalation’ in Moldova
Russia is pressing forward in the Donbass conflict almost two weeks after a horrific terrorist attack outside Moscow left 149 dead. Russian intelligence continues to study the incident, recently revealing they believe the Ukrainian regime played some role in its funding or planning.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may attempt to “escalate” his way out of his current struggles on the battlefield by expanding the conflict to a third country, according to one observer.
“Moldova is probably the most immediate and likely place for the expansion of the conflict in Ukraine,” security analyst and international relations expert Mark Sleboda told Sputnik’s Fault Lines program Thursday.
“Indeed, there is since the 1990s a separatist region of Transnistria, it's a separatist region of Moldova. It's right up against the border with Ukraine and it's a very pro-Russian area and there are Russian peacekeepers there.”
“What's more, there is one of the largest arms and ammunition dumps of the Soviet Union still in Transnistria,” he added. “And there have been many suggestions in the last year that the Kiev regime could solve all of its ammunition problems, potentially for years, if it got its hand on this depot.”
Ukraine’s lack of firepower has become a major problem for its battlefield operations. A lack of recent funding from the United States initially slowed attempts to rearm the country, but its Western benefactors have struggled to keep up with Moscow’s ability to rapidly produce large amounts of ammunition.
The shortfall has led some to propose manufacturing ammunition in Ukraine or resurrecting Europe’s atrophied defense industry, although such efforts would likely require years to get off the ground.
“Just over a week ago there was a drone attack that hit Transnistria from Ukraine,” Sleboda noted. “You could have said that that was perhaps a first salvo fired. And the current president of Moldova is a very pro-NATO, anti-Russian, pro-Ukrainian politician.”
“One of the big possibilities for the expansion of this conflict is to teach Russia that NATO is going to expand no matter what by moving into Moldova and taking over the separatist region, which has been protected for decades now by Russia,” the analyst concluded.
“Whether the people of Transnistria or other parts of Moldova want it or not, and it must be said that the majority of the Moldovan population is against the idea, according to the most recent polls I've seen… It is a big potential flashpoint because it borders the Black Sea.”
Sleboda noted the Kiev regime has been launching kamikaze drone attacks on Russian amphibious landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet, perhaps as a way to stymie the country’s ability to respond if the war does indeed expand to Moldova.
The expert said Zelensky may be seeking to “escalate” his way out of the country’s declining fortunes on the battlefield by perhaps obliging NATO or other Western troops to become involved.
“Yes, it is insane, but that's where we are,” he said.
Meanwhile, a recent article in US media suggested Ukraine’s front lines are at risk of a catastrophic collapse. Observers have speculated the source of the claims could be elements in the Ukrainian armed forces loyal to former military chief Valery Zaluzhny; current commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky is reportedly highly unpopular among Kiev’s troops.
The Russian military is learning quickly, Sleboda pointed out, stating Western weapons employed by Ukraine have a “one shot chance” of effectiveness before Moscow adapts to their usage.
“Whatever weapon that is sent by the West – all this wonder weapon nonsense – you got one shot to use it. The war of one chance they called it,” he said. “Weapon systems become redundant very quickly because they're quickly countered by the Russians… The Russians are always studying. They don't give us a second chance.”
Sleboda claimed Ukraine would likely continue to suffer a disadvantage in manpower as attempts to expand the draft have proven politically controversial.
“Russia for the first time in this conflict actually has a manpower advantage over the last half a year,” he said. “A big part of that is the Kiev regime's truly egregious casualties and Russia's very low casualty rate and high volunteer contract soldier recruitment rate. Russia's recruiting over a thousand soldiers every day and, amazingly, the Kiev regime is losing over a thousand soldiers any day.”
Zelensky recently signed a bill lowering the country’s conscription age from 27 to 25. Attempts to draft younger soldiers have proven difficult given the realities of Ukraine’s demographic situation since the 1990s, with the average age of troops being around 44. The country has taken to forcibly conscripting soldiers off the street, press ganging them into joining the failing military effort.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240404/lack-of-firepower-manpower-dooms-ukraine-as-zelensky-may-seek-escalation-in-moldova-1117747773.html
