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The Duran is a news-media platform that advances a realpolitik position The Duran is not right, left or center. It is a media site that focuses on a pragmatic analysis of stories in the news.
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April 14, 2024
Where we are, Israel/Iran...

Iran side:
Iran is celebrating a successful retaliation. They responded to the attack on their Embassy in Syria.
They showcased their military capabilities. They showcased powerful hypersonic missiles. Iran shows it is a force in the region.
Iran saves face.

Israel side:
CNN: "No reports of injuries directly through Iranian strikes" and "Israel's military says 99% of weapons fired by Iran intercepted" and finally "The US assessment is that Iran’s attacks had been largely unsuccessful."
Israel's Air Defense is strong. US Air Defense is strong (MIC sales $$$).
Israel saves face.

US/Biden WH:
Neocons want Iran war. Biden is a neocon, but a neocon trying to get re-elected. Any other time in his Presidency and Biden would be all in...BUT Jake Sullivan who runs Biden's foreign policy is a campaign guy at heart, and he knows war with Iran would sink Biden's re-election. They opted for a calibrated response/defense, with an off-ramp for all sides.

FT hinted that US and Iran are in back-channel talks facilitated by Oman, "Tehran is unlikely to target Israeli diplomatic facilities in the region, said an official briefed on talks between Iran and Oman, the Gulf state that has often facilitated back-channel diplomacy between Tehran and Washington."

Biden WH official readout: "Tomorrow, I will convene my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack."
KEY WORD is "diplomatic" not military response.

Conclusion:
There is no need for further escalation. A wider war can EASILY be avoided. Everyone can walk away from this claiming a W.

Problem:
Netanyahu, hardliners and neocons (whispering in Bibi's ears), as well as Biden WH mixed messaging.

Israel appears to be going along with the US narrative (for now), but Netanyhu may want to test Biden and launch a strike on Iran. Biden WH said they will not take part in a conflict with Iran, but Biden WH also said their support for Israel is ironclad. MIXED MESSAGING.

Biden has given Netanyahu many blank checks. Bibi may try his luck and cash in another check. Biden said the US will not join Israel in an attack against Iran, but Bibi may want to test that statement, and the neocons will be pushing him to do just that.

👉Long post, but I believe this is where we are.
NO NEED FOR WIDER WAR! This is an easy one to walk away from. All Biden and his team of foreign policy wiz kids need to do is make it very clear that this ends NOW, for all parties involved.

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Berdychi Lost, Ukr Retreat; MSM Ukr Soldiers Expect October Defeat; West Response: Seize Rus $300 Bn

Berdychi Lost, Ukr Retreat; MSM Ukr Soldiers Expect October Defeat; West Response: Seize Rus $300 Bn
Topic 1187

01:26:53
Putin can sense fear. Reuters, $61B not enough for Ukraine. EU flags at Georgia protest

Putin can sense fear. Reuters, $61B not enough for Ukraine. EU flags at Georgia protest
Topic 1314

00:35:25
This hilarious video which for some reason fell under the radar until now, is more relevant than ever. Dick Cheney vs China.

Watch many of the UAE VIPs smiling when Dick Cheney is schooled by the former Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing. The Video is from UAE in 2019 but it is already becoming a classic. (There is a full video also on YouTube, but this one shows the key clash) 😂

00:13:21
Long term Ukraine financing plan as outline by Reuters, "Ukraine’s $61 bln lifeline is not enough."

1. $61B is enough to get Ukraine to Nov. 2024 election. "the latest U.S. package...should see Kyiv through to about the end of next year."
2. Ukraine needs a medium-term funding plan, "Ukraine could run out of weapons again in late 2025."
3. Multi-year funding plan benefits: Insurance against US political swings, boost Ukraine morale, give MIC confidence, change Putin's calculations, and freeze conflict like N/S Korea.
4. Ukraine will need at least 88B Euros every year.
5. Capitalising interest payments of $320B with a bond backed by future interest rates and paying the proceeds to Ukraine "might raise 30 to 40B Euros...it will not be a game changer because it will fund Ukraine for less than half a year."
6. Main way to get money to Ukraine is $320B in Russian assets, "That would finance the war until at least the end of 2028."

👉Here is the important part:
7. $320B as a Syndicated Reparation Loan, "Ukraine would pledge its claim for reparations against Russia to a syndicate of its ...

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April 27, 2024
LOCALS POLL: What will be the outcome of Blinken's ultimatum to China?

What will be the outcome of Blinken's ultimatum to China?

Crooke/Napolitano.
September 29, 2023
Locals Community Private Telegram Messaging

Locals will be sunsetting the private messaging feature throughout the Locals website. In order to keep our private messaging active we have created a private Telegram messaging group called 'The Duran Locals.'

This is a private channel open only to our Locals subscriber community. In the private Telegram group you can send a message to the group or a private message to Alex or Alexander via a direct Telegram message. 

You can access Telegram for web, desktop or mobile here: https://telegram.org/

The link for this Telegram group is below (can be viewed by community subscribers).

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