Where we are, Israel/Iran...
Iran side:
Iran is celebrating a successful retaliation. They responded to the attack on their Embassy in Syria.
They showcased their military capabilities. They showcased powerful hypersonic missiles. Iran shows it is a force in the region.
Iran saves face.
Israel side:
CNN: "No reports of injuries directly through Iranian strikes" and "Israel's military says 99% of weapons fired by Iran intercepted" and finally "The US assessment is that Iran’s attacks had been largely unsuccessful."
Israel's Air Defense is strong. US Air Defense is strong (MIC sales $$$).
Israel saves face.
US/Biden WH:
Neocons want Iran war. Biden is a neocon, but a neocon trying to get re-elected. Any other time in his Presidency and Biden would be all in...BUT Jake Sullivan who runs Biden's foreign policy is a campaign guy at heart, and he knows war with Iran would sink Biden's re-election. They opted for a calibrated response/defense, with an off-ramp for all sides.
FT hinted that US and Iran are in back-channel talks facilitated by Oman, "Tehran is unlikely to target Israeli diplomatic facilities in the region, said an official briefed on talks between Iran and Oman, the Gulf state that has often facilitated back-channel diplomacy between Tehran and Washington."
Biden WH official readout: "Tomorrow, I will convene my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack."
KEY WORD is "diplomatic" not military response.
Conclusion:
There is no need for further escalation. A wider war can EASILY be avoided. Everyone can walk away from this claiming a W.
Problem:
Netanyahu, hardliners and neocons (whispering in Bibi's ears), as well as Biden WH mixed messaging.
Israel appears to be going along with the US narrative (for now), but Netanyhu may want to test Biden and launch a strike on Iran. Biden WH said they will not take part in a conflict with Iran, but Biden WH also said their support for Israel is ironclad. MIXED MESSAGING.
Biden has given Netanyahu many blank checks. Bibi may try his luck and cash in another check. Biden said the US will not join Israel in an attack against Iran, but Bibi may want to test that statement, and the neocons will be pushing him to do just that.
👉Long post, but I believe this is where we are.
NO NEED FOR WIDER WAR! This is an easy one to walk away from. All Biden and his team of foreign policy wiz kids need to do is make it very clear that this ends NOW, for all parties involved.
