SHOULD RUSSIA NEGOTIATE WITH THE DEVIL?
Russia should not negotiate with the US. The US by their actions in Ukraine, their sabotage of all previous negotiations and UN endorsed agreements and their renege of the promise in the early 90's of not extending NATO have made themselves irrelevant. In any negotiations by the Russians with the US, Russia would have to trade away some security to get promises that won't be kept. The US aim of destroying Russia won't be abandoned by its Oligarchs, it will simply be put on hold. Trump or No Trump!
The Russians must have total control over Ukraines' access to the sea and should control East Ukraine to the river. This does not mean Ukraine has to be a useless rump state as Russia could enter into enforceable agreements with Ukraine to allow Ukraine reasonable access to the river and the port of Odessa. Russia doesn't need to destroy Ukraine's economic corridors it just needs to prevent them being sequestered by NATO for military purposes.
With the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO the Baltic Sea has become a NATO lake making the Black Sea even more important to Russian security. The sabotage of Nord Stream is a reminder to anyone who thinks otherwise. If Russia leaves out Odessa they are giving the US an inch and they will, as they always do, take a mile. Exactly as they have done with NATO expansion. Look at what they do not what they say.
Russia needs to restore normal relations with the people who really matter to it, the Germans, Poland, maybe the French and most definitely the Italians and Greeks. Russia cannot simply pivot to Asia and ignore Europe. Europe is Russia's neighbour like it or not. You ignore your neighbors at your peril. If Russia puts all its international trading eggs in the Asian basket, it risks giving China far too great control over Russian trade and economic well being. Russia by having good relations with its European neighbors can diversify its trade such that Chinese trade is not so critical; Europe can be a balance against Chinese domination. Does Russia really benefit by replacing European and US direct investment exclusively with the Chinese equivalent? I think not. There is an argument that Russian relations with India can balance China, but India is an unreliable ally they have too many ties with the Anglo Saxons at the moment. Additionally they have poor relations with every country they border.
People will also argue that BRICS will keep China's reach over Russia curtailed. Institutions like BRICS have use-by dates. BRICS was invented by Brazil, Russia, China and India as a balance against US Economic hegemony. Like all institutions it will outlive its usefulness when it achieves its ends. Like the Institutions Bretton Woods created, the institutions of BRICS will become hijacked by the most powerful vested interests and will lock countries into positions that are against their interests. By maintaining good relations with its European neighbors Russia will have more leverage against deleterious BRICS outcomes in the long term.
Russia might be the fourth largest economy in purchasing power parity terms at the moment, but if BRICS works, then Russia will, unless it increases its population by two to three times, will fall in the GDP PPP ranking behind China, India and Brazil and likewise its influence will fall. The countries with the larger populations will assert themselves, potentially, and most probably to Russia's disadvantage. Having good relations with Europe will balance these forces.
Having poor or no relationships with Europe is also a security risk. An unfriendly neighbour on your border and relying on remote foreigners for your protection against them is a poor substitute for a robust cooperative security agreement with you immediate neighbors. You can be sure they will turn up to help in your hour of need and will provide ready friction free logistical access for your military.
What should Russia do with the US. Keep them at arms length, talk to them, listen to everything they say and do nothing. Watch everything they do and learn their weaknesses. Ultimately the US will become a high middle ranking power balanced by the BRICS and Europe with no ability or ambition to persecute Russia without immediate and major consequences to themselves. In terms of history this will happen very soon, maybe ten to twenty years at most. The problem of the US will be solved by the US Oligarchs myopic self determination to make the indispensable nation ultimately dispensable.
After Ukraine and Gaza who will believe a word they say?
