Michael Hudson:
Neither Trump nor his economic advisors understand what damage their policy is threatening to cause by radically unbalancing the balance of payments and exchange rates throughout the world, making a financial rupture inevitable.
In 1982, Mexico’s default on its tesobono bonds denominated in dollars triggered the Latin America debt bomb of defaults. Trump’s acts looks like he’s forcing a replay. In that case, Mexico’s countervailing response would be to suspend payment on its US-dollar bonds.
This could have far-reaching effects, because many other Latin American and Global South countries are experiencing a similar squeeze in their balance of international trade and payments.
Canada faces a similar balance-of-payments squeeze.Of course, Canada is no Mexico. The thought of it suspending payment on its dollar bonds is unthinkable in a country run largely by its banks and financial interests. But the political consequences will be felt throughout Canadian politics. There will be an anti-American feeling (always bubbling under the surface in Canada).
Keynes emphasized that if creditors want to be paid, they have to import from the debtor countries to provide them with the ability to pay.
This was a profoundly moral policy, and it had an additional benefit of making economic sense.Under Donald Trump the United States is violating that principle.If Mexico is to save its economy from being plunged into austerity, price inflation, unemployment and social chaos, it will have to suspend its payments on foreign debts denominated in dollars.
The same principle applies to other Global South countries. Trump's tariff policy will accelerate U.S. price inflation and, even more fatally, cause chaos in U.S. and foreign financial markets. Supply chains will be disrupted, interrupting U.S. exports of everything from aircraft to information technology. And other countries will find themselves obliged to make their economies no longer dependent on U.S. exports or dollar credit.
https://www.unz.com/mhudson/trumps-balance-of-payments-war-on-mexico-and-the-whole-world/
