Lavrov and Rubio are heading to Saudi Arabia to begin talks to re-establish good relations between Russia and the United States. Ukraine is top of the agenda, but other important issues also need to be discussed between the two powers.
On the topic of Ukraine negotiations:
In the past the Russian government showed trust in the Collective West and the institutions controlled by the west (USA), will they do the same this time around?
In the 2014-15 war between Ukraine and Donbass, the Donbass militia had Ukraine forces trapped in Debaltseve forcing Angela Merkel to rush to Moscow and beg Putin to intervene and stop the fighting. Putin agreed, fighting stopped and the Minsk Agreement was born.
Minsk Agreements had the Donbass remaining within Ukraine, albeit with autonomy, and Kiev allowed to pursue an EU path. It recently came to light (from various statements by Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko) that the Minsk Agreements were nothing more than a ploy to buy time for the Ukraine army.
In March 2022, a delegation of Russian and Ukraine negotiators in Istanbul had agreed to a framework for a pause in the SMO and workable path to peace. The framework deal reached was favourable to Ukraine and would have kept most of the country and its institutions in tact and allowed to pursue an EU path.
As a gesture of goodwill, Russia removed its military forces around Kiev and other urban areas only to have Zelensky reject the framework agreement and push forward with the conflict at the urging of his NATO/US sponsors.
Three years into the war and Russia, now on the path to victory over NATO/Ukraine, has stated that its minimum starting terms for negotiations are Instanbul Plus; demilitarization, denazification, the four Oblasts in their entirety as a part of the Russian Federation, and a new security architecture in Europe.
Will Russia hold firm to its Istanbul Plus terms or will big concessions be made, as we have seen in past negotiations?
