It seems to me that we are now at the pivot point in the (non) negotiations to end/freeze the Ukraine conflict that Trump initiated.

Bloomberg has now confirmed that Putin did NOT agree to a freeze on the existing contact line and continues to insist - as he has always said - on the full implementation of Istanbul Plus. Kellogg in other words has failed.

So Trump now has a choice: either (1) he accepts that and does a deal (very unlikely); or (2) he blames Putin and becomes Biden and continues arming Ukraine; or (3) he walks away, stops arming Ukraine and perhaps - pointlessly - imposes more sanctions on Russia.

Logically, he should do (1). That is the option that makes the most rational sense. It would be an admission of total failure if he did (2). The most likely thing he is going to do therefore is (3). But prolonging this negotiation farce serves no useful purpose.

The same btw applies to his economic war against China. The moment of decision in each case has now come.

What will he do?

That and much else, eg. Canada elections - the worst possible outcome in my opinion - and UK, German politics, to discuss in our Live Stream today.