I am back from a fascinating journey to Georgia , about which there is a huge amount to say, and of course all sorts of things have been happening since we last did a Live Stream. These include the drone attacks on the strategic bomber bases in Russia, and the declaration (passed on by David Ignatius in the Washington Post) of a 'dirty war' by Ukraine (and Britain?) against Russia. At the same time the US does appear to be making finally real efforts to distance itself from the war.

I have a depressing sense of deja vu. When in the 2000s it became clear that the jihadi fighters in the Caucasus had lost the conventional war against Russia, they turned, with the full knowledge and support of their Western sponsors - as we now know - to terrorism instead. The pattern is repeating itself, and I am afraid that from this point on things are going to turn very ugly.

What happened with the jihadis in the 2000s is that the Russians responded in kind - something they had been loathe to do before - with deadly effect, bringing the jihadi threat to a close. I suspect that something similar is going to happen again this time, but inevitably this is going to be ugly, and there will be a lot damage, including for the West.

In the meantime the US appears for the moment to be turning against sanctions as it patches things up with China, even as the streets of LA burn.

So LOTS to talk about......