Dear Guercy ,

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. 
    
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

Total’s Power Move Questions Oil Majors’s Renewable Pull-Out 

• France’s national oil champion TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has agreed to purchase a 50% stake in Western European power generation assets held by the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky.

• TotalEnergies committed to European power assets just as it was reported to be considering selling some of its renewable energy assets in Asia, including its India-focused joint venture with Adani Green Energy.

• Total will pay $6 billion for EPH’s generation assets, mostly comprising gas-fired plants and battery systems in Italy, France, the Netherlands and Britain, boosting its current 19 GW generation portfolio.

• This could potentially mark a new chapter in European oil majors’ strategies, sparking a shift away from renewables and closer to conventional generation.

• The French power move comes on the back of Chevron announcing a 5 GW gas-fuelled power plant in West Texas, expected to be operational by end-2027 to meet booming data centre demand.  

Market Movers

• US oil giant Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly considering buying some of international assets owned by Russian oil firm Lukoil, joining Carlyle and others in buying a chunk of the $22 billion portfolio.

• US oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) announced a gas discovery with its Essington-1 exploration well offshore Australia, hitting a total net pay of 90 meters as it was targeting prospective resources of 260 BCf.

• Japan's leading utility firm Tokyo Gas (TYO:9531) sold its upstream business in Louisiana to privately held US producer Grayrock Energy for $255 million, citing portfolio optimization.

• Mining giant BHP (NYSE:BHP) was found liable for the 2015 Mariana dam disaster in Brazil, as London’s High Court obligated it to pay $48 billion in damages to thousands of Brazilian citizens and local governments.

• ExxonMobil’s (NYSE:XOM) joint venture with QatarEnergy, the 18 mtpa Golden Pass LNG plant is expected to load its first LNG shipment in February, becoming the 9th operational liquefaction site in the US. 

Tuesday, November 18, 2025
 
November might go down as one of the most uneventful months in oil pricing as ICE Brent continues to hover between $62 and 66 per barrel, notably narrower than the $9-per-barrel gap in October. The oil market’s main bullish momentum now comes from Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions, however up until now they’ve resulted in a build-up of Russian crude on sea rather than a collapse in day-to-day loadings. 

Goldman Drops the Bullish Mood. US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has revised downwards its crude oil forecast for 2026, now expecting next year to see ICE Brent average $56 per barrel and WTI to dip to $52 per barrel on OPEC+ unwinding and non-OPEC supply growth. 

Russian Oil Is Building Up at Sea. As Indian and Chinese buyers exercise caution ahead of the November 21 Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions deadline, Russian oil exports have dipped to 3.4 million b/d as the buildup in Russian crude tankers is now counting 11 tankers anchored next to India. 

Suriname's First Gas Project Is Shaping Up. Suriname's national oil company Staatsolie confirmed the commerciality of the Sloanea gas prospect, to be developed by Malaysia's Petronas which operates the offshore Block 52 with an 80% stake, aiming for a 2026 FID and first gas by 2030.

Indonesia Mulls U-Turn on Coal Phaseout. Indonesia's plan to shutter 6.7 GW of coal-fired power generation capacity could be reversed due to stalled disbursal of funds from donor countries, as the Just Energy Transition Partnership failed to collect $20 billion earmarked for the Asian country.

Lithium Prices Soar on Chinese Boom Predictions. China's most-traded Guangzhou lithium futures exploded this week, rising 9% on Monday alone to ¥95,200 per metric tonne ($13,400/mt) after the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, a key lithium producer, predicted a 30-40% demand surge next year.

Saudi Arabia Starts Supplying Oil to Syria. The Liberia-flagged Petalidi tanker arrived in Syria's port of Baniyas, fully laden with Khuff condensate produced by Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), Saudi Arabia's first export of crude to Syrian refineries since the onset of the Civil War.

Brazilian Discoveries Just Keep on Coming. Brazil's national oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported another oil discovery with in the Sudoeste de Tartaruga Verde production sharing block in the offshore Campos Basin, marking another success in its 13-well drilling campaign.

Russia's Key Black Sea Port Resumes Loadings. Crude and refined product exports from Russia's main Black Sea export terminal of Novorossiysk have resumed after a two-day hiatus triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes, with nine tankers departing the port on November 17.

Iran Claims Tanker Diversion in Gulf Waters. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard took responsibility for the seizure of the Talara tanker, claiming it was carrying an 'unauthorized' cargo of 30,000 metric tonnes of petrochemicals produced in Iran and required a full inspection.

Chinese Products Exports Boom on Record Margins. China's exports of refined products jumped 14% year-over-year to 4.52 million metric tonnes, according to Beijing's customs data, with jet fuel accounting for 38% of all outflows, surpassing gasoline and diesel, both tallying just 750,000 tonnes.

India Signs First Big US LPG Deal. India's state-controlled oil firms signed a one-year import deal with US producers, seeking to buy 2.2 million metric tonnes of LPG in 2026, up from buying 1.4 million tonnes this year to date and diversifying their sourcing under pressure from US President Trump.

US EV Sales Collapse on Pulled Subsidies. According to car services firm Cox Automotive, US electric vehicle sales dropped 30% year-over-year in October as the $7,500 federal tax credit was phased out completely, with the average transaction price rising by 2% compared to September.

Majors Exodus from Europe’s Petchem Industry Continues. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) announced that it would shut it Fife ethylene plant in Scotland in February 2026, citing high costs and adverse policies of the UK government, as Europe’s chemical sector continues to shed capacity.  

Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com