Dear Guercy ,

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. 
    
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

India Is Buying Less Russian Oil, But Why Exactly?

• Despite plentiful reports of Indian refiners halting imports of Russian oil after the US sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil on November 21, imports have averaged 1.2 million b/d in December so far.

• That is notably lower than the 1.75 million b/d average of 2025, however, it also disproves media reports of Jamnagar and others halting imports altogether.

• Prices of Russia’s main export grade Urals have slipped between -$6 and -$7 per barrel in early December, however, the differential has firmed since on improving demand.

• Meanwhile, less Russian oil to India might also be due to Chinese independent refiners buying more, as media reports suggested the likes of Yulong and other Shandong giants snapped up 12-14 million barrels for December and January arrival.
   

• High freight costs are also complicating matters for Russian exporters as chartering an Aframax vessel from the Baltic coast to India now costs around $8 million, approximately 50% higher than at the start of 2025. 

Market Movers

• French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has agreed to divest part of its equity holdings in the SK408 block offshore Malaysia to Thailand's PTT, selling 9.99% while retaining operatorship and a 30% stake.

• London-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is preparing a new drilling campaign in the PEL 39 block offshore Namibia from April 2026, returning to the area after writing down its Graff discovery.

• Finnish refiner Neste (HEL:NESTE) revised its 2035 target of reaching ‘carbon neutral production’, watering down its promise to a pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2040.

• Colombia’s state oil firm Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) has scaled back its renewable energy ambition, slashing its 2026 low-carbon budget by 60% to $225 million, citing a broader budget discipline drive. 

Tuesday, December 16, 2025
 
In times when traded volumes are low amidst pre-Christmas preparations, relatively innocuous news on weak Chinese macroeconomic data can sway the sentiment more than in normal periods. China’s industrial output dropped to its lowest since August 2024, triggering a price slump in Brent futures first below $61 per barrel and ultimately below $60 per barrel today. Venezuela is the only immediate bullish factor as we head into the last weeks of 2025.

Kimmeridge Leans into Gas Expansion. US asset manager Kimmeridge, developer of the 9.5 mtpa Commonwealth LNG project, has offered to buy shale gas producer Ascent Resources for $6 billion as one of Ascent’s private equity owners was accused of self-dealing, triggering intense speculation.

European Carbon Prices Jump to 2-Year High. European carbon prices surged to €85 per mtCO2, the highest since October 2023, as the December 2025 contract expired this week and opened up prompt trading for next year when the EU will cut annual auctioned allowances by 52 million. 

Trump Rejects Lukoil Asset Swap Deal. The US Treasury has rejected a 22 billion cashless bid from investment bank Xtellus to buy the foreign assets of Russian oil major Lukoil (MCX:LKOH) in return for the company’s securities held by American investors before sanctions were imposed in 2022-23.

Venezuela Blames US For Cyber Attack. The Venezuelan government accused the United States of orchestrating a cyber attack against its state oil company PDVSA, ordering administrative and operational workers to disconnect from the company’s systems and limit access to indirect workers. 

Russia Mulls Extending Gasoline Ban. Meeting with oil refiners this week, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak signalled that Moscow might extend the current gasoline export ban and keep diesel export restrictions, even though retail gas prices dipped recently to $3.28 per gallon.

Nigeria’s Oil Industry Gets Heated. Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote, owner of the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, accused Nigeria’s regulators of ‘checkmating’ domestic refiners by incentivizing imports, calling for an official inquiry into the head of the country’s downstream regulatory body. 

China Boosts Coal Production Ahead of Winter. China’s coal production recovered in November to tally 426.79 million tonnes, an eight-month high after output in the summer months was hindered by tightened security checks, putting the 2025 total at a whopping 4.4 billion tonnes. 

Tehran Detains Tanker, Arrests Crew. Reciprocating for a recent US seizure of an Iran-bound vessel, Iranian authorities seized a foreign tanker in the Gulf of Oman that they claim carried 6 million litres of smuggled diesel fuel (a mere 38,000 barrels), detaining 18 crew members of the ship. 

Shell Implodes on Failed BP Takeover Bid. Shell's (LON:SHEL) head of mergers and acquisitions Greg Gut has reportedly left the London-based major after the company's CEO and top executives blocked his proposal to take over oil rival BP (NYSE:BP), saying it would derail Shell's corporate strategy.

EU Sanctions Russian Shadow Traders. The European Union slapped personal sanctions on traders that are believed to be dealing with Russian oil and product volumes, including former Glencore trader Murtaza Lakhani and several Azerbaijani individuals from the 2Rivers trading company.

Kazakhstan Expects Karachaganak Endgame Soon. The Kazakh government expects a ruling in its ongoing $3.5 billion arbitration case against the international consortium developing the Karachaganak field before year-end, claiming it seeks to rein in costs inflated by Western majors. 

Shareholders Block Korea's US Smelting Pivot. Leading shareholders of Korea's top smelter Korea Zinc (KRX:010130) have asked a Seoul court to block the company's planned sale of new shares, seeking to finance its $7.4 billion investment into a US zinc/copper smelter in Clarksville, Tennessee.

Pakistan Eyes Russian Oil Imports. Pakistan is reportedly in negotiations with Russia on a potential oil sector agreement, seeking to boost crude imports after this year saw a total collapse of Russian flows (compared to 6 million barrels in 2024) into the debt-ridden Middle Eastern country. 
 

Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com