March to War
President (fmr General) Eisenhower had a belief about how World Wars started. They didn't start suddenly, or just because one country decided one day to be violent. It's smaller wars, smaller destabilization of peace and normality, coupled with heedless expansions of military forces, which lead to World Wars.
Take WWII as an example. There are many arguments when it began. I am partial to saying 1939 with Poland, because that was when the overall conflict became global. However, before it, you had:
The Abyssinian War (2nd Italian Invasion)
2nd Sino-Japanese War
The Chinese CIVIL WAR
The Japanese-Soviet Border War
Multiple illegal annexations of territories in Europe
All tiny or regional wars, which drew in more and more attention. Expanded arsenals. Stretched the, frankly feckless, international organizations at the time to their limit. The global financial disaster occurring at the moment.
World Wars don't start from a single incident. They are a collapse of international norms and peace until everyone is involved.
The Ukraine War (the SMO) isn't WWIII. The Gaza War isn't WWIII. Iran isn't WWIII. Taiwan...probably will be. All of these conflicts, small and large, are building up to an eruption when overstretched powers and nervous states, will do something stupid, and ignite a global war when their alliances join the conflict.
My opposition to war, in addition to my general distaste for it, isn't because I'm purely a dove. I believe war is sometimes the inevitable tool needed. War, however, is inevitably destabilizing and leads to further wars and escalations. One day, both sides will just waddle their way into a world war, and it won't be the spark they think it'll be.
