Dear Guercy ,

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. 
    
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

Arctic Fern vs. America: A Winter Brawl in the Energy Markets

• Arctic Storm Fern has curbed electricity supply to millions of people across the eastern two-thirds of the United States, slashing oil supply by 2 million b/day, gas production by more than 10 bcf/day and sending power prices skyrocketing.

• Day-ahead electricity prices in the PJM Interconnection area, the most impacted by the cold blast, soared almost 550% to $638 per MWh, the highest since 2014, whilst New York saw day-ahead prices jump to $680/MWh.

• Since January 24, US Gulf Coast ports in Texas and Louisiana have loaded only 6 million barrels of crude, compared to a 3.8 million barrels/day average seen in December 2025. 

• The Arctic spell has also lifted domestic US demand for natural gas to 156 billion cubic feet/day this week, up from a 5-year January average of 137 bcf/day.

• Henry Hub gas futures settled at a 3-year high of $6.8 per MMBtu on Monday, easing subsequently to $6.55/MMbtu on Tuesday, creating a giant $3/MMbtu rift between the February and March contracts. 

Market Movers

• US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is reportedly seeking buyers for some Eagle Ford assets operated by its subsidiary XTO, seeking to divest some 168,000 net acres valued at over $1 billion.

• China’s leading gold miner Zijin Gold (HKG:2259) will buy Canada’s Allied Gold (TSO:AAUC) for $4 billion in an all-cash transaction, sealing a recent trade policy rapprochement between Beijing and Ottawa.

• Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has farmed out 10% of its interest in the 65,000 b/d Baleine offshore project in Ivory Coast to Azerbaijan’s state oil firm Socar for an undisclosed fee, with its previous 30% divestment to Vitol assessed at $1.65 billion.

• The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) agreed to buy an additional 7.6% stake from BlackRock’s GIP investment vehicle in two LNG trains at the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas, taking its total ownership to 19.3%. 

Tuesday, January 27, 2025
 
Winter Storm Fern and the impacts of the US’ Arctic blast have shifted the attention away from the gradual return of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz barrels. One could argue that ICE Brent staying put around $66 per barrel doesn’t do justice to the severity of Fern as up to 2 million b/d of US crude oil production was curtailed over the weekend, equivalent to some 15% of national output. 

OPEC+ Expected to Keep on ‘Waiting and Seeing’. Market participants expect OPEC+ countries to roll over their production quotas for March 2026, in line with the previously telegraphed freeze on output unwinding in Q1, as $66 per barrel Brent prices remain too low for most members’ budgets.

Kazakhstan Vows to Restart Tengiz Soon. The Kazakh Energy Ministry announced that the country’s largest oil field Tengiz, has resumed production, after project operator Chevron (NYSE:CVX) was forced to halt pumping completely due to disruptions from drone strikes and a generator fire. 
 
Libya Locks in Giant Upstream Deals. Libya’s National Oil Company signed 25-year development deals with ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) to develop oil fields within the Waha Oil Company joint venture, aimed at tripling production capacity by up to 850,000 b/d. 
 
Michigan Declares War on Oil. The Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel filed an antitrust lawsuit against four of the United States’ largest oil companies – ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Shell – claiming that they colluded to forestall competition from renewable energy resources, including EVs.

Europe Finalizes Russia Gas Import Ban. The European Council has voted to approve Europe’s long-mulled ban on imports of Russian piped natural gas and LNG, pledging to halt incoming flows of LNG completely by January 2027 and to stop importing pipeline gas by end-September 2027. 
 
North Dakota Slashes Bakken Production. The extreme Arctic Blast sweeping through the United States has prompted shale producers in North Dakota’s Bakken basin to cut production by 100-110,000 b/d, equivalent to roughly 10% of the state’s total production as drillers fear ‘freeze-offs’.

US Keeps the Iran Sanctions Hammer Working. The US Treasury Department sanctioned nine shadow fleet tankers allegedly servicing Iranian oil flows and their respective owners headquartered in Oman, India and the United Arab Emirates, taking the total of sanctioned ships above 180.

Nigerian Oil Discoveries Are Still Possible. Following years of relatively weak exploration results, US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has posted a ‘significant’ shallow-water oil discovery in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, finding commercial volumes of crude with its Awodi-07 wildcat, drilled to a depth of 3,800 m. 
 
Europe Counters Trump with Wind Pledge. Germany, Denmark, Britain and other European countries have signed a renewable energy pact this week at the Hamburg North Sea summit, vowing to deliver 100 GW of offshore wind power capacity, without providing a specific deadline. 
 
PJM Sounds the Winter Storm Alarm. The US’ largest regional power grid PJM issued extra alerts to transmission and generation firms as it expects peak demand to exceed 130 GW for seven straight days, an unprecedented maximum-demand streak as Tuesday’s peak load hit a record of 147 GW.

Qatar Brings Syria and Jordan Together. The governments of Syria and Jordan have signed an agreement to supply Damascus with 1.4 bcm/year of natural gas via Jordanian territory, with Qatar providing and financing LNG supply to be further piped northwards via the Arab Gas Pipeline.
 
Trump Jitters Feed the Bullion’s Nonstop Rally. With the US Federal Reserve convening again for its policy meeting today, gold prices have broken through the $5,100 per ounce threshold after President Trump announced higher tariffs on South Korea, hiking the 2026 to date rally to 18%. 

Chinese Oil Firms Pause on Venezuelan Imports. China’s state-owned oil giant PetroChina has ordered its traders not to buy Venezuelan crude after the Trump administration attacked Venezuela and seized Nicolas Maduro, nudging Chinese buyers to maximize heavy Canadian imports instead.  
 

Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com