comment from MOA regarding gold and the dollar:
The consensus among many global economists and financial journals, particularly those in the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern corridors, is that gold reaching $6,000 would signal a terminal breakdown in the dollar’s credibility.
Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University argues that gold reaching this level is a direct reflection of the erosion of Federal Reserve independence and the impact of aggressive tariff wars, which effectively “debase” the currency. David Rosenberg has similarly identified the $6,000 mark as a “black swan” threshold where the sovereign debt crisis makes the dollar’s position untenable, forcing a massive rotation into hard assets. In the Middle East, Nigel Green of the deVere Group views gold at $5,000 and its trajectory toward $6,000 as a “political risk vote” where investors treat U.S. policy instability as a primary macro variable, leading to a “multipolar currency environment” where the dollar’s dominance is no longer assumed.
Financial daily Mint and The Economic Times have reported that such price surges trigger a “defensive liquidation” by central banks in the Global South, who must dump falling dollar reserves to protect their national wealth. Analysts at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Deutsche Bank observe that this is not a temporary spike but a structural shift; specifically, Deutsche Bank notes that $6,000 is achievable this year due to shifting monetary cycles and a “weaker dollar” driven by escalating debt trajectories. These sources collectively suggest that $6,000 acts as a psychological and mathematical “red line” for the Petrodollar system, likely compelling oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia to seek gold-settled contracts and ending the dollar’s ability to easily fund its $37 trillion debt.
Steve Hanke on the $6,000 Gold Prediction
This interview with Steve Hanke explains the specific economic drivers, including tariff wars and monetary policy shifts, that underpin his forecast of gold reaching $6,000 and the subsequent risks to the U.S. dollar.
The following points represent the closest thing to “official evidence” from government-backed entities as of January 2026:
1. The Official Launch of the “Unit” (October 31, 2025)
The most concrete evidence of a state-sanctioned move toward gold-settled trade is the October 2025 launch of a pilot program for “The Unit.” This initiative was developed by the International Research Institute for Advanced Systems (IRIAS), a body with ties to the Russian government and the BRICS Business Council.
• Government-Backed Mandate: Official documents describe “The Unit” as a “digital trade currency” specifically designed for cross-border settlement.
• The Gold Anchor: The system is explicitly backed by a basket of 40% physical gold and 60% BRICS currencies. The BRICS Business Council has framed this as a “strategic safeguard” for member nations (including Saudi Arabia and the UAE) to settle transactions outside the dollar-dominated SWIFT system.
2. The Saudi Ministry of Finance & Multi-Currency Sales
While the Saudi government rarely uses the word “collapse,” their actions since the expiration of the Petrodollar Agreement in late 2025/early 2026 provide significant evidence of a pivot.
• The Policy Shift: As of January 2026, the Saudi Ministry of Finance has officially moved to a multi-currency oil sales model, as reported by regional financial outlets like Maaal and Sada News Agency. This allows the Kingdom to accept Yuan, Euros, and—via the “Unit”—gold-backed digital assets for oil.
• The $6,000 Link: Local analysts in Riyadh have noted that as gold nears $6,000, the “purchasing power parity” of the dollar becomes so weak that the Saudi government is prioritizing non-dollar assets to protect their Vision 2030 funding.
3. Central Bank of Russia & UAE Joint Gold Pool
The Central Bank of Russia has been the most vocal government body regarding a gold-backed trade system.
• Official Statements: Throughout late 2025, Russian officials have characterized gold not just as a reserve, but as an “active trade asset.” * Evidence of Coordination: By January 2026, the BRICS+ bloc (led by Russia, China, and the Gulf states) has consolidated more than 6,000 tonnes of gold, representing roughly 20% of global central bank reserves. This accumulation is officially described as a “shield” against dollar-based sanctions and currency volatility.