BLOCKBUSTER ANALYSIS - DANIEL DAVIS

Boots on the ground?
Nahh! Nukes on the ground.

I like it!

There is a high chance the US will use tactical nukes when it starts to lose against Iran. These are a force multiplier of three orders of magnitude greater than conventionals and which thus provide virtually unlimited force compared to its carrier and ship based conventional weapons. If Iran trashes Israel, which it will with a high probability, Israel will threaten to use ballistic nuclear weapons. The US would then decide to use smaller tactical nukes to crush Iran to dissuade Israel from using its larger nuclear weapons. To those who say the US won't do this, I ask, who will stop them? Remember that the US is the only country to have used nuclear weapons in war, and then it wasn't on the grounds of an existential threat to the US. The nuclear bombs were used to end the Pacific war to limit further US expense and casualties from a land invasion of Japan and to send a message to the USSR. The US doesn't want to invade Iran so tactical nukes? What's not to like?

The US could use a similar expedient rationale to avoid a long, costly war against Iran, especially if Israel is losing badly and will weigh in with their nukes anyway.

I don't know where Trump stands on the issue of tactical nukes, but we know he has a strong aversion to land invasions. His judgement hasn't been shown to be particularly sharp and there are plenty in the Pentagon, the CIA, and congress who will cheer him on. Lindsey Grahame et al. will all foam at the mouth at such an event; a horrible sight.

Will Russia, China, North Korea or India attack the US and start WWIII? Pakistan might, but I doubt it, as they would be toast about an hour after.