@alexbobrowski:
🇺🇸 vs 🇨🇳 One of the most interesting stories remains the relationship between the United States and China. Both in the context of Iran and within the framework of the Moscow-Washington-Beijing triangle. And within the framework of ambitious global Chinese plans.
Trump postponed his trip to China. It was planned that he would go to China at the end of March, but the attack on Iran has made adjustments to the schedule. Analyzing Trump's statements is pointless. Let's just turn to the facts.
Beijing has no objection to postponing the meeting. There are a number of circumstances for that:
- Hormuz is not closed to China
- China has claims against the United States on the introduction of new 10% duties instead of those abolished by the US court (under the 1974 Trade Law)
- The Chinese believe that the pause is convenient for them. Beijing is watching the US get bogged down in a war
- A group of Chinese analysts says bluntly that it is politically inconvenient to receive Trump at the time of the bombing of Iran.
The general motive is that it is better to meet when the "dust settles", but in the meantime it is possible to prepare for meaningful negotiations on trade and economy. That's the whole point of China.
"... When his beloved wife was being strangled in front of him, he stood by and tried to persuade her: be patient, maybe everything will work out..."
It is already obvious to everyone that the attack on Iran is not a threat for the regime in Iran (none of the Trump team will ever be able to explain the difference between Shiites and Sunnis). "Getting" Iran is the key to China and its interests, as well as a blow to the EU and Russia. And, of course, to the Gulf monarchies, who believed that they were the financial powerhouse and concentrated a lot of funds. Which can now go to the USA.
But the main and most unpleasant thing for China is that its strategic project "One Belt, One Road" has been destroyed. The Chinese leadership has not mentioned it in public for over a year!
The maritime part of the project, by the way, was focused on Africa and Latin America. And what's going on there? --The United States is actively squeezing China out.
Panama withdrew from the Belt and Road under severe pressure from the United States. Now it is actually taking away concessions from the Chinese for the key ports of Balboa and Cristobal. Beijing responds with threats of "severe consequences."
Everyone knows about the fate of Venezuela where its very president was simply kidnapped.
In Nicaragua, Honduras and other countries, the trend is similar: the United States, through sanctions, military and financial pressure, is rebuilding fear of the local elites, and therefore control over their regimes, reducing their dependence on Chinese capital and infrastructure.
Peru. In February, the country's congress impeached interim President Jose Geri for clandestine dealings with... Chinese businesses. This case is embedded in the struggle over Chinese projects. If anyone doesn't know, there are elections in Peru in the spring; also the country has the world's largest silver reserves - 22%.
Cuba. The new US national security strategy explicitly sets out the goal of preventing "foreign powers" from controlling the hemisphere's strategic assets. Chinese projects in Cuba are mentioned separately. What is Cuba's fate? Well, Gorbachev betrayed them in the 80s. And how is China reacting today?
This is not a regional struggle. How can China respond?
Why, in fact, does Trump still need to go to Beijing and talk things over?
How can China still put pressure on the United States?
- Rare earths and critical minerals. A lot has been said about this
- Components for renewable energy sources, electronics, and electric vehicles. This is a risk even for the military industrial complex
- Despite Trump's tariffs, Chinese imports through Mexico and Vietnam are large
- US bonds: China is still a creditor of the United States and holds a $650 Billion treasury
- Technological chains. The US is cutting China on AI chips, but China is critical as an assembly site for a number of components
- The war against Iran has shown the capabilities of Chinese surveillance systems. China may share more data with U.S. adversaries
- And a very interesting case - gold and silver. With its rampant demand for these precious metals and the created exchange infrastructure, China is actually disrupting US plans to reform the whole global financial system.
The main problem is that the world and, in particular, the Middle East, do not have a geopolitical counterweight to the United States, which was the USSR. China is not ideologically drawn to this role. That's why we have to wonder whether the United States will or won't break down. Because we still don't always understand the actual intentions of the hegemon.
