Larry Johnson:
5,000 Marines are being asked to secure a rugged coastline that is twice the size of the beaches at Normandy that the US, the Brits and the Canadians stormed on June 6, 1944.
Here's Larry's reminder of the scale of that operation:
'On June 6, 1944, known as D-Day, Allied forces launched the largest seaborne invasion in history, codenamed Operation Overlord, landing approximately 156,000 troops (including airborne and seaborne elements) across a roughly 50-mile (80 km) stretch of Normandy’s coastline in Nazi-occupied France. The assault targeted five beaches—Utah and Omaha (American), Gold and Sword (British), and Juno (Canadian)—with each beach varying in size: Utah spanned about 11 miles, Omaha around 10 miles, Gold roughly 10 miles, Juno about 2 miles (the smallest), and Sword approximately 5–8 miles.
'The sheer scale of manpower—nearly 133,000 landing by sea on the first day alone, supported by over 7,000 ships, 11,000 aircraft, and 50,000 vehicles—created immense logistical challenges. Supplies had to be delivered over open beaches without captured ports, requiring innovative solutions like the temporary Mulberry artificial harbors (prefabricated concrete caissons and breakwaters towed across the Channel) to enable unloading thousands of tons of fuel, ammunition, food, and equipment daily amid rough seas, tidal shifts that reduced usable beach width, and the constant threat of German counterattacks.
'The Strait of Hormuz has deep waters but dust, haze, and narrow shipping lanes complicating large-scale movement. The Iranian shore is more mountainous and arid, with steep cliffs, limited flat beaches, small estuaries, and inhospitable desert-like conditions (hot, dusty, low freshwater). This would make sustained beachhead establishment far harder, with fewer viable landing sites and rapid chokepoints from cliffs/mountains.
'On the Iranian side near Bandar Abbas and parts of the strait, there are vertical cliffs and mountainous extensions from the Zagros range rising sharply from the sea, providing natural defensive vantage points.
'The 11th MEU’s ACE & 31st MEU ACE ook like a pretty formidable force to take a small island, but it is not capable of securing the Iranian coast on the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s another problem… These ships lack the air defense shield of destroyers that accompany a carrier strike group (CSG). If they venture within 500 miles of the Iranian coast they will be vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone attacks.
'The ships lack the air defense shield of destroyers that accompany a carrier strike group (CSG). If they venture within 500 miles of the Iranian coast they will be vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone attacks.
Besides, the MEUs will not be in position to do anything until the first week of April. If the MEUs are used to secure some portion of Iranian territory in the Strait of Hormuz or take Kharg Island, the resulting US casualties will likely be staggering and the Strait will likely remain shuttered for most maritime traffic.
https://sonar21.com/boots-on-the-ground-in-iran-a-deception-or-a-suicide-mission/
