Iran Ceasefire Mirage:

I really do hope that we get a decent deal out of this. There's absolutely zero chance the US accepts any of the 10 Points without wrangling, and honestly it's a maximalist declaration which Iran knows will have to be watered down a tiny bit through negotiations.

But I doubt it.

Israel won't allow this deal to go through. They'll keep bombing Lebanon, Yemen, even inside Iran. Iran will retaliate. The US will claim Iran violated the ceasefire and have their 'defensive' justification to go in again, after they've moved more arms, troops and equipment over.

Even then, it's entirely possible the US merely decides to unilaterally extend the ceasefire, negotiate with the bare minimum desire for any deal. Two Weeks becomes three. Then a month. Then another month. All the while they arm up more and more, and if Iran attacks, then they're the villain.

This was the gamble with a ceasefire. Iran has handed initiative to the US and Israel again, handing the ball back.

For this to be durable, Russia and China HAVE to intervene now. They need to flood Iran with arms, money, reconstruction supplies, everything. Already we know Russia is helping them, but China needs to be involved. They have the pockets for this. They need to get a nuclear shield over Iran soon, because I actually fear Trump is capable of using a nuke.

Nukes are a madman's game, and sadly I think Trump is looney enough to use them preemptively. The US has never hidden they are WILLING to use nukes, but in reality those circumstances are few. Trump is so egodriven, that if he thinks the Iranians are laughing at him, he may use one.