It is starting to look as if the Hormuz crisis may be abating, with the US calling off its ill starred project to 'guide' ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

The talk now is of the US proposing a deal whereby Iran would agree to a 'moratorium' on uranium enrichment (for how long exactly?), which if true (far from certain) implies that Iran would actually retain some sort of control or possession of its existing stockpile. In return the US would agree to lift sanctions (in whole or in part?). There would also be some form of lifting of the restraints on shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, though again we don't know whether the Iranians would maintain their stance that they have henceforth overall control.

If there is anything truth to any of this then obviously the demands for Iran to give up its ballistic missile programme or abandon its regional allies (the Houthis and Hezbollah) are being abandoned, as are plans for 'cutting off the head of the snake', ie. regime change and all that.

It is difficult to see how this would not be construed within Iran itself and in the region and in the wider world as a clearcut victory for Iran, which would be seen as having fought the US to a standstill. As for the Israelis, they will be appalled and will feel abandoned. I can already sense the dismay in those parts of the media which support them.

However, I am far from sure that any of this is real - how many things have we heard over the last 3 months which turned out to be completely unreal? - so we should be careful. Nonetheless I do get the sense that we are edging towards the end of the affair.

Meanwhile the war in Ukraine continues, with the Russians advancing, their economy returning to growth, NATO fracturing, and - in the event the US does indeed do a deal with Iran of the sort being talked about - a growing likelihood of the US walking away.

These topics and many others to talk about....