The US can still avoid strategic defeat and economic chaos - but only if it accepts a pragmatic deal by Alexander Mercouris.

The US actually has an obvious way out of its disastrous war against Iran and the mess it finds itself in the Middle East and with the global economy:

(1) Send a proper negotiating team to meet the Iranians. Ditch Witkoff and Kushner.

(2) On nuclear enrichment take the deal on offer;

(i) a 5 year moratorium on uranium enrichment;

(ii) enrichment up to 3.6% thereafter;

(iii) dilution of the existing stockpile which however remains in Iran;

(iv) the return of the IAEA inspectors (surprisingly the Iranians apparently agreed to this before the war);

(v) no sunset clauses.

(3) Agree a full lifting of sanctions. This should be done immediately NOT in a phased way with the primary agent being the UN Security Council. By now the Iranians deeply mistrust any phased removal of sanctions and would probably not agree to it. Besides phasing the removal of the sanctions keeps the US tied in, when the whole objective should be to get out;

(4) Close the US Persian Gulf bases, which the war has exposed are useless and a stategic liability;

(5) Negotiate a return to free transit through the Strait of Hormuz, returning to the situation which existed before 28th February. This may seem impossible but the pre war status quo actually suited the Iranians well and the US will have strong support from China and Russia if it pushes for it as part of a global agreement;

(6) Negotiate security guarantees for both Iran and the Persian Gulf States, guaranteeing them against future attack, confirmed by a UN Security Council Resolution; and given by China and Russia as well the US.

(7) Agree to Russia and China acting as guarantors of Iran's commitments on enrichment (see (2) above). The Russians have already offered to do this multiple times and if asked the Chinese will agree also. Russia and China strongly oppose Iran acquiring nuclear weapons so they have every incentive to ensure Iranian compliance with their enrichment obligations.

The US has already dropped its demands for limits to Iran's ballistic missile programme, an end to Iranian support for Hezbollah, the Iraqi militias, and the Houthis and for sweeping internal changes in Iran, (see my video of yesterday).

There is no sense in harping on about Iran declaring that it has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons. It has made that very declaration multiple times and is a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This demand is otiose and silly.

In return insist that Iran drops its demand for reparations from the US. I don't believe the Iranians believe in this demand. They must know that the Americans will never agree to it, and wouldn't pay reparations anyway even if against all expectations they did agree to it. For the Iranians getting the sanctions lifted is the prize. The demand for reparations muddles the issue.

The US should also encourage the Iranians and the Gulf States to set up with each other some sort of regional security structure to safeguard peace and freedom of navigation in the Gulf. The Chinese and the Russians have suggested it and it serves the interests of all parties. However this is something the regional states must agree with each other. The US should not let itself get bogged down in negotiations on this issue.

The approach I have suggested not only extricates the US from an unwinnable war. It also provides for an agreement which satisfies the core interests of all parties. Objectively it is good for both Iran and the US.

The Iranians would see the end of the long economic siege they have endured since 1979, giving their economy a route to grow. They would also get some reassurance for their long term security, though there can never be a full guarantee of this in the Middle East.

The Americans would get strong guarantees that Iran will never become a nuclear power, something it doesn't appear to want to become anyway. They would also bring to an end their long debilitating entanglement in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, which is what ever since Obama announced a 'pivot to Asia' they have said they want.

None of this should be difficult to agree. An agreement that so obviously satisfies the core interests of all sides never is.

What stands in the way is that in the US it would be presented as a defeat, even though objectively, in the long term, it should be seen as a deliverance. The 'hyperpower' cannot fail in a war, especially against a country like Iran, and even though 'victory' now looks unattainable, it must be sought anyway, regardless of cost.

Moreover in Israel such an agreement would be treated as a disaster, failing to achieve the obsessively desired objective of regime change in Tehran, so earnestly needed in order to achieve Israel's maximalist objectives, even though by now it ought to be obvious that this objective is unachievable.

So we will probably see the negotiations fail, if they take place at all, which to say the least, currently looks doubtful.

Instead of a perfectly attainable and mutually beneficial agreement we are therefore likely to see a long, pointless and extremely dangerous struggle, ending almost certainly in a US defeat, leading to a global economic catastrophe.

The lesson, which in Washington they never seem to learn, is that if you play for all or nothing, you risk ending up with nothing. That however is where we are heading at the moment.