Trump’s Maximalism Is Bringing America Back to the Brink with Iran
Unable to distinguish negotiation from surrender, Trump may may once again be drifting toward war by Alexander Mercouris
Trump’s response to the Iranian offer is disturbing and further proof that he is out of his depth. It is also further evidence for my contention that the US is not just ‘agreement incapable’ - as the Russians say - but ‘negotiation incapable’ as well.
Trump - the ‘Great Dealmaker’ - doesn’t seem to understand that diplomacy requires negotiation. Though the US has so far failed to defeat Iran, and though the situation in the global economy is deteriorating every day, Trump becomes incensed the moment the Iranians make a proposal that falls short of his maximalist demands. That the current proposal is a perfectly reasonable opening bid in intended negotiations is a possibility that doesn’t occur to him. Disastrously, and indicatively, there doesn’t seem to be wide understanding of this within the wider US leadership either. The result is that we are now back looking at the possibility of war, with disturbing suggestions that Trump may again be thinking of a ground invasion.
There are two other factors in play:
(1) Netanyahu, whose whole position depends on continued war, continues to pour poison into Trump’s ear. The fact that everything Netanyahu told Trump at the Oval Office meeting on 11th February about Iranian weakness has turned out to be untrue doesn’t seem to have made any difference. Trump still listens to him.
(2) The rumours the Saudis are disillusioned with the US and are looking seriously at some sort of arrangement with Iran, as the Russians and Chinese have been urging, are certain to spook the Americans (not just Trump). A renewal of the war to block this (very improbable) possibility from happening may be attractive to some people in Washington.
By the way, it is difficult to know how much weight to place in these rumours. Prince Faisal, the Saudi Foreign Minister, did talk to Aragchi yesterday. However, there is nothing to suggest so far that serious talks between the Iranians and the Saudis are underway.
A renewal of the war looks like a disastrous idea. Any number of well-informed people have spoken of the immense risks. Every assessment of Iranian weakness up to now has turned out to be wrong. I personally can see no sign of such weakness. Robert Kagan, the arch neocon, has written in The Atlantic about how Iran is shaping into the biggest defeat the US has suffered since the end of World War II.
Trump and his advisers are working hard to prove him right.
