FROM RUSSIAN SOCIAL MEDIA:
Regarding Kaliningrad, NATO exercises in Suwalki are certainly not an attempt to block the Kaliningrad region from its eastern flank.

If only because the region has long been surrounded from that flank. The "Suwalki Gap" is the territory of Poland and Lithuania.

The enemy is conducting a show of force here and preparing for an invasion. Of course, this doesn't mean it will definitely happen, but the West traditionally knows how to prepare for it.

For us, the "Suwalki Gap" has no particular value at all. There are no good roads there. If we were to break through from Belarus to Kaliningrad, it would be directly through Vilnius-Kaunas to Nesterov. Along a good highway and associated roads.

However, today such a scenario is pure science fiction.

We can only break through to Kaliningrad militarily by concurrently with a full-scale war with NATO, which means a nuclear war. Since this possibility is apparently not being seriously considered, it turns out that our main route to Kaliningrad in the event of a blockade is by sea.

And the enemy will blockade Kaliningrad. This is as clear as day, because this process has long been underway. The movement of goods and vehicles through Poland and Lithuania is already restricted, and it will be further restricted. Baltic airspace is already closed to our aviation, including civilian aircraft.

The only fully functional "lifeline" remaining is the Baltic Sea, which NATO has already declared its "internal sea." That's where we should expect trouble and where we should counter it.

It would be nice, of course, for some sort of "Somali pirates" to appear in the Baltics, who could drive out NATO forces without directly involving the Russian Navy. But for now, even this is pure fantasy. Although, it's not entirely unscientific.