Never before has there been a situation like the present one, in which farmers across every corner of the world are simultaneously grappling with shrinking supply and rising input costs — fertilizers, pesticides, diesel, lubricants, transport. There is simply no way to know how many producers have chosen not to plant. But since February 28th, millions across the world have made that choice. Since crops planted (or not) today will not be harvestable for months, the full force of the crisis will not be felt until 2027..

The United States has just declared a national emergency on fertilizers. Below a certain level of supply, the problem is no longer that food becomes expensive; the problem is that there is not enough food for everyone, regardless of how much money people have to spend.
This is not only a global food crisis. It is a crisis running through virtually every global supply chain, because petroleum derivatives are embedded in virtually all of them. Already at the war’s outset (March 4th, just five days after fighting began), Craig Tindale sketched a general framework for how these disruptions would cascade: twelve sequential transformations unfolding over more than five years, culminating in a broad civilizational reorganization of the world. A full return to pre-war levels is already out of the question.

https://www.unz.com/article/the-global-food-crisis/