The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Monday, July 27, 2026 · The Week Ahead
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Brazil's answer to Washington: turn East.
Presidents Lula and Xi spoke for over an hour on Sunday and agreed to fast-track a Mercosur–China trade deal — days after the US tariff wall went up. Bilateral Brazil–China trade already runs at US$188 billion a year. And this morning South Korea's president lands in Brasília chasing the same prize: Brazil's minerals. The pivot East is on.
South Korea's president lands in Brasília today — rare earths and critical minerals top the agenda
A midday inflation print could clear the path for an August Selic cut
Colombia's central bank is seen hiking to 12.50% Thursday — Ávila's last call
UNESCO tells Argentina to halt the Vaca Muerta export pipeline
Guyana's public debt has risen sixfold since first oil
Good morning, and welcome to the week. It opens with Brazil quietly redrawing its trade map — away from Washington, toward Asia.
On Sunday, Lula and Xi agreed to fast-track a Mercosur–China deal in an hour-long call. This morning, South Korea's president arrives in Brasília to talk rare earths and supply chains. Two of Asia's biggest economies, courting Brazil in the same week — the answer to the US tariff is looking less like negotiation and more like diversification.
The home front is about data. A midday IPCA-15 inflation print will harden or soften the bet that the Banco Central starts cutting the 14.25% Selic in August, and on Thursday Colombia is expected to hike to 12.50%. Markets were shut over the weekend; the region opens cautious ahead of US manufacturing data, with the Ibovespa nursing Friday's 1.52% slide and the real steady at R$5.09.
Why it matters: Friday's US$3.7bn relief package was Brazil spending to cushion the tariff. This week's diplomacy is the other half of the strategy — building alternative demand in Beijing and Seoul so the next tariff hurts less. The pivot East is shaping up to be the structural story of the second half.
Markets across Latin America
Friday's close — markets were shut over the weekend.
IBOVESPA · BR
174,042
▼ −1.52%
Petrobras −1.7%
IPC · MX
66,384
▲ +0.21%
GFNorte +2%
IPSA · CL
10,951
▲ +0.31%
bucked the trend
MERVAL · AR
3.28M
▼ −1.07%
off record highs
COLCAP · CO
2,274
▼ −0.38%
rate call Thu
BRENT
$96.78
▼ −3.9%
back from $100
REAL · BRL
R$5.09
• steady
carry intact
SELIC · BR
14.25%
• cut in view
IPCA-15 today
The week ahead
Today. Brazil's IPCA-15 mid-month inflation lands at midday — a soft print keeps an August Selic cut alive. South Korea's president meets Lula in Brasília; a Korea–Brazil business roundtable follows in São Paulo.
Thursday. Colombia's central bank is seen lifting the policy rate 50bp to 12.50% — the final meeting chaired by Germán Ávila, with inflation still near 5.8%.
Watch. US manufacturing data could firm the dollar against regional currencies; the LatAm Pulse tracks it through the day.
Commodities that move Latin America
Friday's close: copper firmed (CPER +0.3%), Southern Copper −1.6%; oil eased (USO −2.0%), Petrobras softer; lithium −1.8% as Chinese battery-grade prices stay under pressure; iron ore flat as Vale slipped. Full wraps: zinc · steel · crypto.
The big moves
South Korea's president lands in Brasília today, minerals first › Lee Jae-myung meets Lula to lock in cooperation on rare earths, critical minerals and the energy transition, building on a February strategic-partnership upgrade — and he even inspected an Embraer C-390 amid a ~US$692 million procurement.
Why it matters: Brazil sits on minerals the whole world's EV and defence supply chains need. With China courting Mercosur and Korea courting Brasília in the same week, Brazil is discovering it can auction access — and play the great powers against each other.
UNESCO tells Argentina to suspend its Vaca Muerta export pipeline › The World Heritage Committee asked Buenos Aires to pause work on the YPF-led, 437-km oil corridor to the Atlantic, citing risks to the Península Valdés site — a fresh obstacle for Argentina's flagship energy-export bet, with a February 2027 deadline to respond.
Guyana's public debt has risen sixfold since first oil › The world's fastest-growing economy is also borrowing hard against future barrels — a reminder that an oil windfall and a debt build-up can run together, and a cautionary tale for the region's next producers.
Expat & living
Bringing your pet to Panama: the 2026 rules, step by step › Vaccination records, health certificates, home-quarantine options and the paperwork that trips people up — a practical guide for anyone relocating with a dog or cat.
Colombia's vacation rentals have surged 635% › Short-term rental supply is booming across Colombia — good news for travellers with options, and a signal for anyone weighing a rental-income play in the country's hot markets.
New · from our Africa desk
Ghana just paid off a US$700 million Eurobond early and graduated from its IMF bailout — a rare African-creditworthiness good-news story — while Zuma's MK party is shaking the ANC's grip on South Africa. That's today's Africa Intelligence, from this same newsroom.
Markets & deals
Banorte signals interest in acquiring Citi's Banamex
FEMSA lifts its Mexico investment plan
Carlos Slim backs a Puebla mall megaproject
Itaúsa approves a US$285 million shareholder payout
Buritirama overtakes Vale as Brazil's top manganese miner
Industry & energy
Chile's power tender draws Engie, Enel and Colbún
Rumo's Malha Sul rail extension heads to a Curitiba hearing
XAU Resources buys into Guyana's Quartzstone gold
Petrobras recycles its P-32 platform into Gerdau steel
Politics & society
Milei brings Starlink to rural Argentine schools
Argentina's illegal trade tops US$32 billion
Bolivia moves to overhaul its mining code
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
