The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Friday, July 31, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Bradesco goes to the market for US$1.96 billion.
One of Brazil's largest private banks is raising up to R$11 billion (US$1.96 billion) in fresh capital — the biggest Brazilian bank-capital move of the year. It's a bet and a defence at once: money to fund a turnaround and win back ground lost to Itaú and the digital challengers, and a cushion for whatever the second half brings. And it lands the same week the country's federal debt topped US$1.82 trillion — the fiscal weight sitting under an otherwise risk-on market.
Brazil's federal debt tops US$1.82 trillion in June
Neymar confirms his retirement after Brazil's World Cup exit
Bolivia orders Evo Morales's arrest over road blockades
El Salvador floats an EU-style Central American union
Mexico's Ebrard pushes Washington to cut steel tariffs; Milei moves to expel foreigners who "vilify" Argentina
Good morning, and welcome to Friday. The week that opened under a Wall Street cloud closed with the sun out across Latin American markets.
A softer dollar and renewed foreign appetite lit a broad rally: the Ibovespa jumped 1.88%, the real firmed to R$5.06, and every major index in the region finished higher. The policy backdrop stayed busy: Mexico pressed Washington to ease steel tariffs, and in Buenos Aires Milei signed a decree to expel foreigners who "vilify" Argentina.
Why it matters: This is the flip side of the mid-week sell-off — proof of how tightly the region still trades to the dollar and US risk appetite rather than its own fundamentals. A weaker dollar is rocket fuel for LatAm carry; the question into August is whether the move has legs or is just a bounce.
Markets across Latin America
Thursday's close — a green sweep on a softer dollar.
IBOVESPA · BR
177,159
▲ +1.88%
sharpest in weeks
IPC · MX
67,290
▲ +1.23%
joined the rally
MERVAL · AR
3.30M
▲ +2.2%
back to highs
REAL · BRL
R$5.06
▲ +1.14%
dollar softer
COLCAP · CO
2,342
▲ +1.7%
2026 high zone
IPSA · CL
11,031
▲ +0.9%
record watch
COPPER
firm
▲ steady bid
Chile · Peru
PETROBRAS
+2.0%
▲ led Brazil
heavy turnover
Brazil. The Ibovespa jumped 1.88% to 177,159, its sharpest gain in weeks, Petrobras (+2.0%) leading as the real firmed to R$5.06.
Mexico. The IPC climbed ~1.2% to 67,290 as the peso firmed, even as Ebrard fought a two-front battle over steel tariffs.
Argentina. The Merval rose ~2.2% to 3.30M, climbing back toward its record as risk appetite returned.
Colombia. The COLCAP advanced ~1.7% to 2,342, holding in its strongest zone of the year.
Chile. The IPSA rose ~0.9% to 11,031, back within reach of a record as copper held firm.
Commodities that move Latin America
Thursday's close: copper jumped on a China rebound (CPER +2.58%), lifting the Andean miners; Vale and Rio surged even as iron ore held flat; lithium miners rallied (LIT +4.60%) and zinc names spiked (Nexa +8.22%). Steel firmed on tariffs, silver gained as gold slipped, oil eased (WTI −1.42%) though Petrobras and YPF rallied, wheat rose as soy and corn dipped, and bitcoin held near US$64,725.
The big moves
Brazil's federal debt tops US$1.82 trillion › The stock of federal public debt climbed again in June, crossing US$1.82 trillion as the Treasury rolled over heavy maturities at still-elevated rates — a fresh reminder of the fiscal weight sitting under the market's risk-on mood.
Why it matters: This is the counterweight to Thursday's rally. Equities can run on a soft dollar, but the debt trajectory — and the cost of financing it — is what will decide how much room the central bank and Treasury actually have in the second half.
Mexico fights a two-front steel battle › Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard is pressing Washington to cut US tariffs on Mexican steel — which can hit 50% under Section 232 — while weighing new levies on Chinese steel to protect domestic mills from a flood of cheap imports.
Why it matters: Mexico is caught between its two biggest trade relationships. Cutting a deal with Washington on steel while shielding itself from Chinese overcapacity is the exact tightrope every open Latin American economy now walks — the same squeeze that has driven Brazil's whole tariff saga this month.
Saipem wins a US$150 million Guyana subsea deal for Exxon's Longtail › Italy's Saipem takes another slice of Guyana's oil boom — an initial contract worth potentially up to US$1.5 billion to build the subsea backbone of the vast Longtail deepwater project.
Milei signs a decree to expel foreigners who "vilify" Argentina › The measure lets Buenos Aires bar or deport foreigners who spread hatred or violence against Argentines by nationality — a sharp, and contested, expansion of the government's immigration powers.
Expat & living
Peru rolls out a biometric foreigner ID card › The new biometric carné de extranjería changes how residents register and prove their status..
Banks & capital markets
Fitch: the Pemex burden costs Mexico a notch, but BBB- holds
dLocal–ACI deal opens Brazil's Pix to global merchants
Earnings & deals
Enel Américas lifts first-half profit 18.5% to US$510 million
Motiva's Q2 profit jumps 67% on toll-road strength
Brazil's Profarma lifts Q2 revenue 32% to US$703 million
JBS's Pilgrim's Pride sees profit slump on a chicken glut
KIA's Mexico EV plant gets US$649 million for the EV3 SUV
Mexico's CFE weighs a US$1 billion Fibra E grid raise
Energy & industry
PDVSA cuts out the traders as refiners return to Venezuelan crude
BNDES opens a US$3.9 billion line to renew Brazil's truck and bus fleet
Mexico's huachicol fuel theft rose 15% in 2025
Public finance & policy
Panama sends a US$35 billion 2027 budget to Congress
Brazil's audit court flags 82% of Pix budget amendments as irregular
Brazil's El Niño plan injects US$262 million to stockpile corn and rice
Guatemala's IUSI reform exempts homes, keeps the commercial levy
Politics & society
Bolivia orders Evo Morales's arrest over the road blockades
El Salvador proposes an EU-style Central American union
Lula's "Triple Alliance war" remarks anger Paraguay
Pardoned ex-president Juan Orlando Hernández returns to Honduras
Mexico orders its militarized schools shut by August 31
Ecuador arrests an ex-mayor as an alleged Los Lobos financier
US–Uruguay deportee talks advance, but without a final deal
Economy, trade & health
Brazil's agribusiness bankruptcies surge 33% in Q1
Peru's air cargo jumps 10.3% in May, leading Latin America
Flybondi's sales are blocked in Brazil after 79% of flights are axed
Brazil's semaglutide race opens as Anvisa clears five pens
Caribbean & tourism
Jamaica issues its first-ever casino licence
Panama sets a tourism record: 1.75M visitors in H1
Uruguay's cruise season draws 242,000 passengers
Cities & culture
Live Nation plans Latin America's biggest arena in São Paulo (R$1.5bn)
Cartagena's US$84 million cable car clears financing
Santiago's "Paris-London" quarter gets a revival
Out this weekend
Neymar confirms his retirement after Brazil's World Cup exit
Monterrey in August: Rosalía, Ozuna and the month's big fests
Rio nightlife tonight · São Paulo nightlife
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
