The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Weekend edition
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Argentina just green-lit a US$9.7 billion copper mine.
San Juan province's Vicuña copper-gold project has cleared Argentina's RIGI incentive regime — a US$9.7 billion commitment that would be one of the largest mining investments in the country's history. And it's not alone: RIGI has now waved through a pipeline worth roughly US$49 billion, from Pampa Energía to the MEGA developments. For a country that spent a decade starved of capital, the floodgates are visibly open — the question is whether execution can keep pace with approvals.
Vale's Q2 profit falls 35% to US$1.37 billion
Chile posts its worst copper quarter since 2007
Mexico's inflation cools to 3.10%, its lowest since 2020
Peru's ex-president Ollanta Humala walks free as a court annuls his conviction
Chinese car imports into Brazil surge 147% to top the world
Good morning, and welcome to the weekend. The week closed on a split screen: money pouring into the ground in the Southern Cone, and coming out of it more slowly in the Andes.
Argentina's RIGI regime cleared roughly US$49 billion of investment, the marquee being the US$9.7bn Vicuña copper mine. Brazil's Ibovespa added another 0.47% to a record-ish 177,999 to close the week. But the bellwether earnings disappointed: Vale's profit fell 35%, and Chile logged its weakest copper quarter since 2007.
Why it matters: The region's two big copper stories point opposite ways — Argentina building future supply while Chile's current output stumbles. That's the investment case for the Southern Cone in one frame: the growth is real, but it's front-loaded with capex and back-loaded with delivery risk.
Markets across Latin America
Friday's close — the week ended mixed.
IBOVESPA · BR
177,999
▲ +0.47%
record zone
IPC · MX
66,937
▼ −0.58%
peso eased
MERVAL · AR
3.29M
• ~flat
near highs
REAL · BRL
R$5.08
• steady
softer dollar
PESO · CO
<3,132
▲ multi-year high
strongest since '22
COPPER
steady
• supply in focus
Chile Q2 weak
OIL
firm
▲ Petrobras up
Ecopetrol fell
LITHIUM
soft
▼ Chile control plan
triangle dips
Commodities that move Latin America
Friday's close: copper steadied with Chile and Peru supply in focus; lithium names dipped on Chile's state-control plan and zinc slid as Buenaventura sank on Peru jitters. Steel weakened on China fears, oil firmed (Petrobras up, Ecopetrol down), gold and silver retreated on a firmer dollar, and wheat dropped 3.29% with corn and soy.
The big moves
Vale's Q2 profit falls 35% to US$1.37 billion › The world's top iron-ore miner booked a sharp earnings drop as prices stayed soft and one-off charges bit — a reminder that the commodity cycle is still working against Brazil's heaviest exporter.
Why it matters: Vale is a proxy for the whole China-demand trade. A 35% profit fall says the iron-ore bull case is on pause — even as copper, the metal of the energy transition, keeps drawing the capital (see Vicuña above).
Chile posts its worst copper quarter since 2007 › Output from the world's largest copper producer slumped to a near-two-decade low for a second quarter, as ageing mines and water constraints keep biting — exactly the gap Argentina's new projects are racing to fill.
Why it matters: Weak Chilean supply is bullish for the copper price and, by extension, for every new Andean and Argentine project trying to get financed. Scarcity is the tailwind under the whole regional mining boom.
Mexico's inflation cools to 3.10%, its lowest since 2020 › Headline inflation slid to the doorstep of Banxico's target — the clearest sign yet that Mexico's disinflation is on track and that more rate cuts have room to come.
Expat & living
Brazil and Japan extend their visa waiver through 2029 › Good news for dual-market travellers and remote workers: visa-free short stays between the two countries are locked in for another three years.
Culture & the weekend
AFROPUNK returns to Salvador with Kehlani › The global festival of Black music and culture lands in Bahia this weekend..
Also on this weekend: Bamba Festival in Santiago with Juanes · Mexico City's August of Rosalía & Harry Styles · Ronnie Wood's Buenos Aires solo debut · Medellín's Flower Fair · the Curitiba Biennial · Neymar's new museum at Santos.
Banks & capital markets
Santander Brasil's buyout offer carries a 15% premium in a share swap
Colombia holds its rate at 12% on a 4–3 split · Chile holds at 4.5%
Colombia's foreign bond issuance hits its highest since 2006
Milei's capital-markets reform opens Argentina to bond investors
Colombia's Nequi wallet splits from Bancolombia · MD Capital wins Caixa Geral Brasil
Earnings & deals
Peru's Buenaventura doubles earnings on the gold rally
Coca-Cola Embonor doubles profit to US$52M despite a Bolivia hit
Mexico's CFE profit drops 43% on a weak peso · EcoRodovias −74% · Irani −70%
Orbia dodges a US$1.14 billion cartel claim in court
Mercado Libre launches Balse to battle Shein and Temu
American Airlines' Azul stake is cleared by Brazil · Mallplaza adds 8 Colombian malls for US$376M
Constellation Brands hires 600 for its new Veracruz brewery
Energy, mining & infrastructure
ExxonMobil's Guyana drives record Q2 output · gas-to-energy gets US$91.5M
Colombia's Hidroituango mega-dam hits a milestone and first profits
Brazil approves a US$4.1 billion Ferrovia Centro-Atlântica rail extension
Brazil sets a US$193M Santos container-terminal auction · ISA Energia closes a US$208M transmission deal
Trinidad's refinery restart gains US backing · Korea's POSCO enters Brazil's Caldeira rare-earths project
Chile fast-tracks environmental approvals for US$20B of projects
Economy & trade
Chinese car imports into Brazil surge 147% to top the world rankings
Chile's unemployment holds at 9.4% as industry rebounds
Moody's: Latin American loan delinquency is set to rise
Cuba opens its private sector to 81 activities as the economy nears collapse
A Chilean plan floats a US$2,150 Codelco handout for citizens · Barbados growth slows to 1.4%
Politics & society
Peru's ex-president Ollanta Humala walks free as a court annuls his conviction
Mexico captures the alleged mastermind of the Carlos Manzo murder
Lula's Paraguay war remark triggers a diplomatic summons · an STF probe opens into Lula's son
Ecopetrol's CEO exits amid a graft probe · and now seeks a plea deal
Chile and Venezuela resume consular ties · Haiti sets December elections
Costa Rica's Grynspan leads the first UN straw poll · the Falklands freeze residence permits
Deep dives & the big picture
The Brazilian economy in 2026: GDP, rates and the debt outlook
Argentina's economy in 2026: inflation and poverty after Milei's cuts
Brazil's population will stop growing in 2041, then shrink
Amazon river dolphins face a 95% loss within 50 years
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
