Dear Guercy ,

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. 
    
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

Trump Takes Aim at Big Oil’s War Profits

• Runaway Q2 earnings of US oil majors have brought bumper profits of energy companies back into the political limelight, with US President Trump ordering retailers to ‘get retail prices down’ as soon as possible.

• Donald Trump accused ExxonMobil and Chevron of making too much money and told them to ‘give some of that money back to the public’, also calling them out for not crediting his administration’s efforts to help the oil industry.

• Whilst ExxonMobil’s oil production was impacted by closures in the Middle East and Chevron continues to struggle with CPC closures in Kazakhstan, it was both companies’ refining margins that have been stellar since the onset of the war in March.

• The 3-2-1 spread (2 barrels of gasoline, 1 barrel of distillates from 3 barrels of crude) has doubled since early March to $60 per barrel, whilst crude oil prices are only up by $11 per barrel after this week’s renewed diplomatic push.

• Meanwhile, the average US gasoline pump price has dipped to $4.08 per gallon as of August 4, up 30% from a year ago.   

Market Movers

• UK-based energy giant Shell (LON:SHEL) has agreed to sell its European onshore renewables portfolio to peer major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) for an undisclosed sum, comprising 0.5 GW assets in operation and a 3.5 GW pipeline of projects.

• UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has completed the divestment of its Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany to investment firm Klesch Group, leaving it with only five operational refineries (2 in the US, 3 in Europe).

• Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR has bought out the 3.65% operating interest held by Japanese trading company Itochu (TYO:8001) in the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) offshore field, marking the fourth exit from the project.

• Nigeria’s Dangote oil refinery is reportedly planning to launch its initial public offering, believed to be Africa’s largest ever listing, in October, with owner Aliko Dangote pushing regional capital markets to take part in the IPO.

Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
 
Crude oil prices have been pushed lower this week as comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Qatar’s Foreign Ministry about a potential draft agreement being drafted buoyed hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict. ICE Brent is now back at $80 per barrel, just in time for US oil refiners after President Trump lambasted them for making ‘too much money’. 

OPEC+ to Complete Voluntary Production Cuts. Seven remaining OPEC+ member countries have agreed to raise their collective output targets by 188,000 b/d in September, completing the phased unwinding of 1.65 million b/d voluntary production cuts first announced in 2023, even if on paper.  

Hormuz Shut or Not, Saudi Budget Gets Its Money. Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) reported a 33% jump in Q2 profits, rising to $33.4 billion, as surging oil prices have softened the blow from lower oil production with Aramco’s average barrel sold at a hefty $108.10. 

ADNOC Ditches Own Futures for Dubai Pricing. From November 1, Abu Dhabi’s state oil company ADNOC will price all its grades against Platts Dubai, abandoning its futures-based IFAD Murban mechanism after buyers started demanding prompter pricing amidst Hormuz disruptions.

Pemex Takes Its Time with Leaking Gas Well. Mexico’s state oil company PEMEX has closed its Krem-1 exploratory well some 5 months after an accident triggered a fire, leading to flaring that may have burned 300 million cubic meters of gas, with environmental monitoring still underway.

Iran and Oman Map Out New Hormuz Route. Tehran says it has discussed with Omani officials the creation of a single shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz with separate entry and exit lanes, potentially contradicting initial media reports that suggested Tehran rejected the idea.

Brazil’s Hottest Exploration Well Delayed. Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) announced that it would only finish drilling the Morpho well in the Foz do Amazonas basin in September instead of its original May deadline, potentially opening a new 30-billion-barrel untapped oil frontier. 

Indonesia Lifts Nickel Export Restrictions. Indonesia has resumed exports of minerals containing rare earth by-products after sellers complained of mandatory testing delaying key nickel exports, with the three-month LME nickel contract immediately sliding down to $17,000 per metric tonne. 

Panama Canal Auctions Break VLGC Economics. With the Suez Canal and Hormuz Strait both disrupted, average Neopanamax slot-auction costs in the Panama Canal surged to a record $2.5 million, with some bids even reaching $3.8 million, crushing US Gulf Coast-to-Asia arbitrage for LPG. 

Russia’s Oil Exports Dip on Higher Refinery Runs. Russia’s weekly seaborne crude oil exports have dipped below 4 million b/d for the first time in six weeks, coming in at 3.9 million b/d, as the relative lull in Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries has seen throughputs rebound to 4 million b/d again.

Iraq and Turkey Eye Pipeline Capacity Expansion. Iraq and Turkey have formalized a one-year agreement to maintain crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline that evacuates Iraqi crude to the Mediterranean, with the deal providing for a quadrupling of export flows to 750,000 b/d. 

Syria Agrees to Slash Russian Crude Imports. The al Julani-led Syrian government has agreed to drastically cut its imports of Russian crude, averaging some 60,000 b/d in 2026 to date, as part of Damascus’ ongoing discussions with the Trump administration to lift all remaining sanctions. 

Hormuz Transits Plunge to Two-Month Low. Hormuz transits have dropped to their lowest since June after the Liberia-flagged dry bulk tanker Minoan Pioneer was targeted early Tuesday, with one seafarer missing and the crew abandoning the vessel, two days after a VLCC carrying Iraqi oil was hit. 

Qatar Doesn’t Give Up on Expansions. Contractors Chiyoda and Technip Energies have resumed construction of Qatar’s 32 mtpa North Field East expansion, with the first train undergoing commissioning and the second completed, with traders expecting first volumes by summer 2027. 

Iran War Drains Billions from Global Supply. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that lost output since February now equals 2.6 billion barrels, one month of global crude output and would take 18 months to replenish at an average rate of 2.1 million b/d even if Hormuz reopened immediately.

Best regards,

Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com