The Rio Times Africa Intelligence
Friday, August 7, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Ramaphosa turns on his own police commanders.
South Africa is auditing itself in public. The Madlanga Commission's second interim report into criminality and political interference in the justice system recommends criminal investigation of suspended deputy national police commissioner Shadrack Sibiya — alongside a sergeant, a protected witness and the alleged political fixer Brown Mogotsi. Ramaphosa said on Thursday he had noted and backed the referrals. The inquiry exists because a serving provincial commissioner accused his own institution of collusion; the final report lands 16 November.
The Madlanga Commission wants criminal probes of a deputy police chief and three others — Ramaphosa backs it
Bank of America calls an African M&A wave: US$50 billion in six months, 4× last year
Nigeria's SEC approves tokenized equities — first offering expected in September
Tanzania misses its own deadline on a US$42 billion LNG project
Letshego sells five African units to Axian — and retreats home to Southern Africa
Good morning from the Africa desk. This week's thread is institutions that can finally act — and what they choose to act on.
The Madlanga story is above. Right behind it, the same president moved on energy: on 3 August Ramaphosa endorsed taking the grid from Eskom — an independent state-owned Transmission System Operator, ending months of lobbying by the utility to keep the assets. And Nigeria showed quieter state capacity in the same week: the SEC approved tokenized equities and the insurance regulator licensed 43 recapitalised firms.
But institutions also act against people: Dakar jailed three pro-PASTEF commentators for offending the president — months in prison, over posts.
Why it matters: Latin America knows both faces. Brazil spent years auditing its own police-politics collusion in public; Mexico is still fighting over whether the state or the market owns the grid. Institutional self-correction is the slowest competitive advantage a country can build — and the one investors price last. Pretoria is building it visibly. Dakar is showing what the same machinery looks like pointed at critics.
Africa's currencies today
Where the continent's macro really moves — the rate vs the dollar.
ZAR · SOUTH AFRICA
16.34
• strongest in a month
Brent back under US$80
BWP · BOTSWANA
13.78
• pula steady
Letshego comes home
NGN · NIGERIA
1,364
• naira steady
tokenized equities OK'd
TZS · TANZANIA
2,645
• shilling steady
US$42bn LNG deadline missed
XOF · WAEMU
568.9
• CFA franc steady
Dakar verdicts, WB billions
KES · KENYA
129.4
• shilling steady
Axian's next target, legal snag
Daily FX, latest available (7 August, 00:02 UTC). The rand is the board's story this week: R16.34 from R16.98 on 24 July, up 7.9% over twelve months.
The big moves
Bank of America calls a South African M&A wave › Announced deals across sub-Saharan Africa hit US$50 billion in the first half of 2026 — more than four times a year earlier, per LSEG Deals Intelligence. BofA, which says it has executed over US$20 billion of that tape, calls South Africa well placed to keep attracting foreign buyers despite the volatility.
Why it matters: When a Wall Street bank publicly calls the cycle, it is selling the cycle — but the tape backs it: HSBC's Egypt retail exit to Emirates NBD closed this week, Letshego is selling five units, Axian is buying. The deals are real; the question is who is on the buy side. Increasingly, the answer is Gulf and African capital, not London.
Nigeria approves tokenized equities trading › The SEC has authorised tokenized stocks on the NASD OTC Securities Exchange, the market for unlisted securities, on a blockchain platform built by Toronto's Blockstation. The first public digital securities offering is expected in September — with legal cover from legislation President Tinubu signed.
Why it matters: Nigeria leapfrogged branch banking with mobile money; it is now trying the same jump in capital-market infrastructure. Brazil is running the parallel experiment with Drex and asset tokenization. Whichever market settles the regulatory template first becomes the reference for the whole Global South.
Letshego sells five African units to Axian › Botswana's Letshego is retreating to its Southern African core, selling five peripheral units to Axian — the Madagascan telecoms-to-finance group active in 21 African countries, buying through a Dubai vehicle. Kenya is next on Axian's list, held up by a legal snag.
Food security. El Niño could push nearly 49 million more people into acute hunger by end-2027, the World Food Programme warned this week — the continent's slow emergency on a two-year fuse.
Tanzania. The government missed its own June deadline to sign the host government agreement for the US$42 billion LNG project — no signature, no final investment decision, no construction.
Senegal. Three commentators from the pro-PASTEF outlet Feeñal Digital were convicted of offending the head of state — three months for one, two for the others, plus 500,000 CFA francs each.
Nigeria. NAICOM began licensing the 43 insurers and reinsurers that cleared the new capital rules — 23 non-life, 10 life, 8 composite, 2 reinsurers.
DR Congo. A riverboat from Kisangani is under health surveillance at Kinshasa after a passenger died with Ebola-like symptoms — so far untested.
Nigeria. 308 kidnap victims were freed, including 163 taken from Woro and Nuku in Kwara State — held for about six months.
Defence. The US and Angola deepened naval cooperation at last month's Rabat maritime summit — security, modernisation and information sharing, with 40+ African navies in the room.
Markets. The rand is near its strongest in a month as Brent slipped back under US$80 — the recovery from R16.98 on 24 July held through the week.
Senegal. The World Bank will mobilise 340 billion CFA francs for Senegalese agriculture, transport and resilience — the same week Dakar jailed three commentators.
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
