The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Five days into the job, Colombia's president is preparing an economic emergency.
A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck near San José del Palmar in Chocó on Monday morning at a depth of about 95 kilometres, shaking for 40 to 50 seconds. Reuters confirmed 224 dead by Tuesday; other outlets put the figure higher, and it is still moving. Cali has lost 95 lives, Pereira 72; 153 buildings have collapsed and the Hospital Universitario del Valle has partial façade damage. De la Espriella — sworn in on 7 August — signed a national disaster decree and is preparing an emergencia económica to move relief faster. Up to US$450 million of World Bank credit is being activated, and tax deadlines are extended in six affected departments. Colombia has asked for supplies but declined foreign rescue teams.
JPMorgan cuts Brazil to Neutral and the Ibovespa falls 2.5%
Brazilian inflation is back inside the target band after a fourth rate cut
The US is now the top buyer of Venezuela's oil — a seven-year high
SOUTHCOM stands up a permanent anti-cartel command for the region
Edenor buys MetroGAS from YPF for US$780 million
Good morning. Brazil got two pieces of good macro news and its worst session in weeks anyway. July's IPCA rose just 0.07%, taking the twelve-month rate to 4.44% and back inside the 1.5–4.5% target band — helped by food, with tomatoes down 29%. And the Copom minutes confirmed a fourth consecutive quarter-point cut, to 14.00%, a full point below the 15% peak.
But the minutes preached serenidade e cautela, called inflation expectations still "desancoradas" and promised restrictive policy for longer. Then JPMorgan moved Brazilian equities to Neutral from Overweight, trimmed its year-end Ibovespa target to 185,000, and warned that Brazilian assets typically underperform in the six months before an election. The Ibovespa fell 2.5%.
Why it matters: Inflation inside the band and a cutting central bank is the setup investors have waited two years for. That the market sold off anyway tells you what is actually being priced now: not the rate path, but the fiscal and electoral one. JPMorgan expects a single further cut in September and then a pause into 2027 — which means the monetary tailwind is nearly spent just as the campaign begins.
The second thread of the week keeps thickening. The United States took about 786,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in July, a seven-year high, while China's share collapsed from roughly 70% of exports to a fraction of it. And SOUTHCOM activated Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere on 4 August as a standing counter-cartel headquarters, replacing a temporary operation.
Markets across Latin America
Tuesday's close.
IBOVESPA · BR
167,875
▼ −2.50%
worst in weeks
IPC · MX
65,565
▼ −1.32%
Gentera −5.3%
COLCAP · CO
2,423
▲ +2.12%
only gainer
MERVAL · AR
3,022,485
▼ −3.19%
banks lead down
REAL · BRL
R$5.163
▼ −1.04%
Selic 14.00%
PESO · MXN
17.096
▲ strongest since May '24
—
OIL
WTI up
▲ Hormuz tighter
still shut
GOLD
US$4,370
• silver slides
inflation jitters
São Paulo took the worst of it — the Ibovespa's steepest one-day fall in weeks, with BTG Pactual units down about 4.1% and both Petrobras and Vale off more than 1% despite firmer crude. The real weakened 1.04% to R$5.1629.
Buenos Aires gave back its rally: the Merval dropped 3.19% to 3,022,485 as traders took profits on the financials that had driven it, with Grupo Galicia down 4.0% and Banco Macro 4.6%. The peso nonetheless firmed 0.49% to 1,491, just below the top of its band.
Mexico City slid 1.32% to 65,565 on financials and telecoms — Banorte down 2.7%, América Móvil 2.6%, Gentera 5.3% — while the peso closed at 17.0959, its firmest since May 2024.
Santiago fell 1.25% to 11,129, dragged by mall operators and retailers, with Mallplaza down 4.2% on heavy turnover. The peso firmed about 0.4% to roughly 913.
And Bogotá was the region's only gainer — the COLCAP up 2.12% to 2,423, its strongest session in weeks, with the peso firming 0.52% to 3,130, within a whisker of its 52-week high. Local reporting on a central-bank fiscal-adjustment plan drove the buying.
Read the pattern: Four markets down, one up — and the one that rose is the country in a state of national disaster. Meanwhile every currency in the region strengthened except the real. That combination says this was not a regional risk-off move driven by the dollar; it was a Brazil-specific repricing of fiscal and election risk that dragged sentiment sideways into its neighbours. Colombia's market, for now, is trading the fiscal plan rather than the earthquake.
Commodities that move Latin America
WTI climbed again as Hormuz closed tighter · Brazilian steel plunged on Chinese oversupply and tariff fears · iron ore slipped as Vale's ADR dropped 3.83% · copper edged up with CPER at US$40.22 · zinc slipped as Nexa fell 2.76% · lithium slid across LIT, Albemarle and SQM · bitcoin held US$63,500 as US regulators circled.
The big moves
Edenor buys MetroGAS from YPF for US$780 million › Argentina's largest electricity distributor takes over the country's biggest gas distributor, and YPF frees capital for the shale plans it has just promised to accelerate.
Why it matters: Two things at once: a state-linked oil company selling downstream distribution to concentrate on Vaca Muerta, and a private utility betting that Argentine energy tariffs will stay economic long enough to justify US$780 million. The second is the braver call.
BTG Pactual posts a record quarter — and buys Banco Digimais › A record result and an acquisition on the same day, from the bank whose units then fell 4.1% in the sell-off. The market is not rewarding Brazilian financial strength this week.
Copper and lithium anchor a Chile–US minerals alliance › Landing the same week Chile cut its 2026 copper output forecast to 5.27 million tonnes and Codelco paused the El Teniente expansion again over seismic risk.
Expat & living
Panama is climbing the 2026 safety rankings.
Palhoça, next to Florianópolis, is among Brazil's best value for rent › The island's prices have run away; the mainland neighbour has not.
Getting around: four countries sign a South American open-skies pact · JetSmart adds Florianópolis–Córdoba from December · a boutique beach hotel three hours from Guadalajara
Places: Bacalar and its lagoon · three new cafés in Mérida · Chile's preventive weather emergency in five northern regions
Earnings & results
Itaúsa profit rises 7% to US$846M · B3 up 8% to US$275M · PagBank US$113M
Caixa Seguridade up 9.5%, US$206M dividend approved · Banco BV up 6.8%
JBS posts a US$102M loss despite record sales · Magazine Luiza's adjusted loss
Copa's profit halves as jet fuel more than doubles · Movida doubles to US$26.7M
Grupo Éxito profit jumps 31.6% on its bank · Cury up 14.3% · JSL falls 16.6%
Cruzeiro do Sul Educação up 60.6%
Deals, capital & energy
CSN completes a US$1 billion debt swap as its cement sale heats up
Vinci Compass buys the Navis real-estate platform · Multiplan sells a mall stake for US$49.1M
Cauchari-Olaroz lands US$220M for its lithium expansion · Cashea raises US$100M for Venezuelan consumer credit
Lula is set to sign four decrees opening the power market · Ecuador courts private oil capital
Chevron is reportedly weighing an exit from Peru · Codelco may reinvest all of its 2025 profits
Vale and ABB sign an AI deal for iron-ore plants · Google's Americas Connect cable
Economy & policy
Brazil's public debt climbs to 81.9% of GDP · Mexican industrial output rebounds 1.7%
Asia overtakes the Americas as Mexico's top import source · the viral Chinese-investment number vs the record
Why Goldman Sachs is courting Sheinbaum's Mexico · nearly 3 million Mexican jobs exposed to AI
Peru raises its growth outlook to 3.5% · the UN sees Venezuela growing 6.5% with 385% inflation
Argentina's top court curbs discriminatory provincial taxes · a US$781M central-bank debt buyback
Argentina pushes central-bank reform toward a 19 August vote · UVA mortgages return, fragile
Latin America needs four workers to match one American, the IDB finds · Chile wants instant payments, but not a Pix
Bolivia's investment law meets a divided assembly · Bolivia blames YPFB for its fuel shortage
Politics, security & society
Colombia's first airstrike under De la Espriella hits the ELN in Catatumbo
A new CNT/MDA poll puts Lula at 42% · Brazil's electoral court weighs a Bolsonaro deepfake
Federal police hit an organised-crime grip on elections in Ceará · Mexico cuts security troops 66%
Brazil, Colombia and Peru launch a joint Amazon river operation · Peru tightens the net on illegal gold
Colombia courts Bukele's El Salvador · Kast's approval sits at 35% · Milei's youth support slips
Peru rules out pardons for Toledo and Castillo · Suriname moves to evict Mennonite settlers
Guyana's uranium plan meets indigenous opposition · gunmen kill a patient in his hospital bed in Nicoya
Two miners survive a collapse at Chuquicamata · Cuba marks Castro's centenary
Culture & what's on
Tomorrowland Brasil 2027 sets its ticket dates · Mariah Carey adds a São Paulo Christmas show
42 free concerts in Ibirapuera this week · Bogotá's 70+ free theatre and circus shows
Ney Matogrosso and Marisa Monte in Rio · Soda Stereo with orchestra in Arequipa
Rosalía and more in Guadalajara · Sam Smith at the Auditorio Telmex
CDMX's new Museo del Gato · shnit San José screens 120+ shorts
A free literary week in Curitiba · Curitiba's winter festival returns · Verão Fortaleza starts 13 August
The Alfajor World Championship in Buenos Aires · Andrés Cepeda's Quito finale · Ana Carolina in Bahia
The Mexican poet Vicente Quirarte dies at 72
Our thoughts are with everyone affected in Chocó, Valle del Cauca and Risaralda this morning.
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
