Hormuz Attacks Push Oil Toward $100 Despite US Crude Build
Dear Guercy ,
Brent heads toward a 5% weekly gain as stalled US-Iran talks and Hormuz attacks push oil prices toward $100.
Friday, August 14, 2026
Crude oil prices are set to post a 5% weekly gain after this week quashed hopes (for the umpteenth time) of a negotiated US-Iran settlement, with Tehran ratcheting up its strikes on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, whilst the White House doubled down on its maritime blockade of Iranian crude. The unusually high, 17-million-barrel, build in US crude inventories has offset a little part of the overall bullishness, however if the pace of naval attacks is to continue into the second half of August, ICE Brent would jump from its current $88 per barrel closer to the $100 per barrel threshold.
OPEC Keeps Trimming Its Oil-Demand Outlook. OPEC slashed its outlook for 2026 global oil demand growth to 580,000 b/d, a stark contrast to the IEA’s 1.6 million b/d decline, marking the fourth straight month when the Vienna-based organization was forced to curb its forecast amidst the Hormuz crisis.
IEA Sees Oil Deficit Deepening Despite Demand Collapse. In its monthly report, the International Energy Agency predicted that global supply will fall by 4.3 million b/d in 2026, pushing the Q3 deficit to 1.8 million b/d even as record fuel prices lead to an unprecedented 1.6 million b/d demand destruction.
Saudi Crude Allocations Go Off Script. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is negotiating September supplies with Asian buyers individually as shipowners shun both Hormuz and the Red Sea, leaving even confirmed volumes uncertain despite its formula prices falling to a six-year low.
Ukraine Offers Russia a Black Sea Shipping Truce. Kyiv has reportedly proposed halting attacks on civilian vessels and ports as escalating strikes cripple its agriculture exports, sending Ukrainian grain shipments down 76% year-on-year so far in August, reviving fears of another global food-supply shock.
Alaska LNG Hits Another Political Roadblock. A tax bill needed to advance the $50 billion Alaska LNG export project stalled in the state legislature, unsettling investors as developer Glenfarne struggles to secure enough binding contracts to finance the planned 20 mtpa and start liquefaction by 2031.
US and Iran Both Claim the Keys to Hormuz. The Iranian government insists no vessel can transit the Hormuz without its permission, directly challenging President Trump’s claim of “total control” of the strategic waterway as Tehran ties the reopening of the strait to political concessions from the US.
US Gulf Lease Sale Draws $82.7 Million. The US Department of Interior’s 3rd lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico only generated 82.7 million in bids, with 16 companies bidding across 59 offshore blocks, with the auction offering 15,100 yet unleased blocks as the White House wants to boost offshore output.
Vaca Muerta’s Oil Prize Nearly Doubles. The government of Argentina has raised its estimate of technically recoverable shale oil in the Vaca Muerta play to 30.1 billion barrels, double the previous estimate of 16 billion, reinforcing plans to lift output and to export more than 1 million b/d by 2027.
Saudi Barrels Pile Up at Home. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) raised output by more than 1 million b/d to 8.2 million b/d in July, however only an incremental 200,000 b/d reached the markets as Bab el-Mandeb disruptions force Riyadh to boost domestic inventories to their highest since at least 2016.
Qatar Extends India’s LNG Drought. QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure to India through August after delivering Petronet just two cargoes since the war began, with 56 term shipments now missed, as Qatar’s share of Indian LNG imports dipped from more than 45% in 2025 to 12% this year.
Nigeria Sweetens the Deal for Deepwater Oil. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu approved a rules-based tax incentive framework to replace project-by-project talks for deepwater projects, starting with Shell’s Bonga Southwest project as Abuja targets $50 billion of offshore investment and 3 million b/d of output.
Explosion Disrupts Europe’s Largest Port. A blast at Gunvor’s Rotterdam terminal killed one person and injured several others, while an unrelated power failure halted ExxonMobil’s 200,000 b/d refinery after a fire in a transformer substation prompted nearby industrial sites to suspend operations and evacuate.
Best Regards,
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
