The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Saturday, August 15, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Petrobras has found oil at the mouth of the Amazon — on the frontier it spent years fighting for permission to drill.
On Thursday Petrobras confirmed hydrocarbons in its Morpho well, block FZA-M-59 in the Foz do Amazonas basin — its first such result off Amapá. The well sits in 2,886 metres of water, about 175 km off the coast and roughly 500 km from the mouth of the Amazon. Read the caveat carefully: the oil was identified through electric logs and rock samples, drilling continues, and Petrobras has not said whether the volumes are worth producing. This is a find, not yet a discovery worth building on. What makes it matter is where it is — the Equatorial Margin that IBAMA refused to license for years, and the same geology that made Guyana rich.
Citi drops the real from its carry basket — and puts the rand in its place
Brazilian unemployment hits a record low as the Selic falls
S&P lifts Ecuador for the first time in six years
Vale and BlackRock bid up to US$3.5 billion for Porto Sudeste
Colombia's reconstruction bill lands near US$6.35 billion
Good morning. Brazil ended the week with a set of numbers that ought to be a celebration. Unemployment fell to 5.4% in the second quarter — the lowest second quarter since the series began in 2012, down from 6.1% in the first and 5.8% a year earlier, with underutilisation dropping to 12.9% from 14.3%. Inflation is inside the ceiling at 4.44%. The Copom has cut four times, unanimously, to 14.00%.
And the market fell for a ninth consecutive session to a seven-month low, down 3.2% on the week. Four big banks have lost about R$96.7 billion — US$18.6 billion — of market value in those nine days. Then Citi pulled the Brazilian real out of its carry-trade basket and swapped in the South African rand, citing October's election and a probable Lula win.
Why it matters: Record employment, inflation in the band, a cutting central bank — and the longest losing streak since 2023. There is no reading of that where the economy is the problem. What is being priced is October, and Citi's swap makes it unusually explicit: a bank does not replace one emerging-market currency with another over data, it does so over politics. For anyone holding Brazilian assets, the question for the next two months is not what the numbers do but what the polls do. Quaest now has Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie.
In Colombia the arithmetic of the earthquake is arriving. The toll stands at 281 dead, 3,971 injured and 379 missing, with about 11,000 homes destroyed and more than 44,900 damaged. BTG Pactual puts reconstruction near COP 20 trillion, about US$6.35 billion — roughly 1% of GDP, landing on a 2027 budget that already had a shortfall.
Markets across Latin America
Friday's close — where the region ends the week.
IBOVESPA · BR
166,934
▼ 9th straight
7-month low
MERVAL · AR
2,947,349
▼ −1.77%
loses 3 million
COLCAP · CO
2,452
▲ +0.84%
best of the five
IPSA · CL
11,043
▲ +0.39%
lithium, energy
REAL · BRL
R$5.214
▼ −0.48%
Citi steps out
PESO · COP
3,124
▲ +0.71%
near 1-yr high
COPPER
US$6.59
• flat, tight
per pound
OIL
up
▲ Hormuz blockade
Brent & WTI
São Paulo edged down 0.10% to 166,934, a ninth straight fall and the lowest level in six months, now 16% below its April peak. Itaú rose 1.8% as money sought the largest private bank; Minerva jumped 5.3% while 3tentos lost 10.1%. The real weakened 0.48% to R$5.2135.
Buenos Aires gave back the three-million mark it had just taken, the Merval down 1.77% to 2,947,349 as investors booked profits on financials — Banco Macro off 3.8%, Grupo Galicia 3.5%. YPF was a rare gainer at +0.6% and the session's most-traded domestic name. The peso firmed to 1,488.
Bogotá had the region's best day, the COLCAP up 0.84% to 2,452 as oil-sensitive names found support, with the peso firming 0.71% to 3,124 — now about 22% below its 52-week high after a long run of strength.
Santiago added 0.39% to 11,043 on lithium and energy, with SQM-B leading turnover at US$14 million and up 3.0%, and Copec gaining 3.6%. The peso was unmoved at 914.45.
Mexico City slipped 0.39% to 64,574 on mining and airport names — Grupo México, Peñoles and Banorte the heaviest drags, against Femsa up 1.3%. The peso held at 17.017, near its strongest since late May.
Commodities that move Latin America
The Hormuz blockade lifted Brent and WTI again · copper ended flat with Chilean and Peruvian supply keeping the market tight · Vale fell despite firmer Chinese steel data · steel slipped on the China tariff trade · zinc settled at US$3,875 · Albemarle and SQM rose as the LIT ETF slipped · soy, corn and wheat all rose · bitcoin slid below US$63,000.
The big moves
Vale and BlackRock bid up to US$3.5 billion for Porto Sudeste › An iron-ore terminal changing hands at that price tells you what export capacity is worth when the ore price is soft — the bottleneck, not the commodity, is where the margin sits.
S&P upgrades Ecuador to 'B' — its first lift in six years › Alongside Bolivian country risk falling to 407 points, now below both Argentina and Ecuador.
Why it matters: Two of the region's most distressed credits improved this week while its largest lost nine sessions in a row. That is what a repricing looks like from the bottom up — the frontier gets cheaper to fund exactly when the anchor economy gets more expensive. It rarely lasts, but it is where the asymmetric money gets made.
Cosan quits Wall Street and spins off its US$490 million farmland arm › A delisting and a break-up in one move, from one of Brazil's biggest agribusiness groups.
Markets price a 37% chance of a US copper tariff on Chile by 2028 › A number worth keeping in view for anyone modelling Chilean supply.
Expat & living
Panama vs Costa Rica: is Panama the new Costa Rica for retirees? › The comparison people actually make when choosing, worked through on cost, healthcare, residency and what each place is genuinely like day to day.
Panama vs Argentina: what it is actually like to live in each › Two very different bets — dollarised stability against a country whose currency gap has just closed.
Living in Ciudad Quesada: a 2026 guide › The Costa Rican town that keeps coming up when people want the country without the coastal prices.
Argentina's new hospital charges: who actually pays › The follow-up to this week's rule, with the detail that matters — emergencies stay free for everyone, and permanent residents are unaffected.
Culture & the weekend
Where to eat this weekend. SP Gastronomia brings twenty-plus restaurants and live shows to São Paulo, the ninth Tempero Bahia turns Salvador into a feast, and Banorte ÉPICO gives Monterrey two days of it. In Mexico it is chile en nogada season in Querétaro, and Puebla has a table for every craving.
On stage. The Foo Fighters have set Buenos Aires dates for 2027, and twenty-two more concerts there this year are worth the ticket. Arcángel takes two nights at the Palacio de los Deportes, Milo J reaches San Salvador for the first time, Edu Falaschi brings the Angra years to Curitiba, and Léo Santana fills Salvador with samba tonight. Also: Tecate Comuna in Puebla and Maroon 5, Rawayana and ACE in Quito.
What's on where you are. Rio: Kafka, singles' parties and free fun · São Paulo: free shows, comedy and food · Buenos Aires: a long weekend, 15–17 August · Bogotá: concerts, free festivals and earthquake benefits · Puebla: DJ Snake and a free book fair · Recife: forró, circus and ciranda · a giant mural for a Salvador school
Today: Zambia has stopped counting its votes ›
Earnings & results
Banco do Brasil profit climbs to R$3.9bn, beating forecasts · Vibra Energia soars 705% to US$451M
Cyrela up 16% as margins hold · Ânima triples · LWSA leaps 117%
Samarco posts a US$328.5M loss on Mariana reparations · Oncoclínicas' loss triples to US$91M
Marisa swings to a loss as its auditor doubts the company's future · Light loses US$49M despite earnings up 82%
Yduqs drops 54% on new distance-learning rules · M. Dias Branco down 22%
Sigma Lithium narrows its loss on record revenue · Petz Cobasi up 8.4% · Grupo Energía Bogotá up 15%
Moody's cuts Aegea deeper into junk over US$7bn of debt · Grupo Argos joins the MSCI Small Cap index
Allos sells a São Bernardo mall stake for US$64M · AES Andes completes a US$1.3bn solar-storage hub in Chile
Politics, policy & the state
Milei's reform package heads to Congress as Argentina lifts its dollar ceiling · the Supreme Court limits rule by decree
Argentine growth is stuck near 2%, the central bank chief concedes · Brazil's deficit forecast worsens to US$11.3bn
Brazil's fiscal watchdog warns the target is being softened · the 2027 minimum wage is set at US$334 a month
The evangelical caucus blocks the 2027 budget · a US$2.5bn state credit deal clears
De la Espriella removes five ambassadors and restores ties with Israel · the US revokes the visa of López Obrador's son
Affiliation fraud at the TSE ensnares both Lula and Bolsonaro · police search Cláudio Castro again
Pixbet is accused of using the tax IDs of 549 dead people · the central bank liquidates Simpala
Peru's fugitive Cerrón resurfaces in public · a court archives the charge against Nadine Heredia
Peru names a new SUNAT chief · and a new Petroperú general manager
Trade, economy & the desks
Panama Canal cargo tonnage climbs 7% · El Salvador and Belize sign a 400-line trade deal
Mexico puts US$149 a tonne on Chinese ammonium sulfate · Egypt opens up to Peruvian blueberries · Panama to Tucumán lemons
Unemployment fell in 13 of Brazil's 27 states · Guatemala draws 1.6 million visitors
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
