Dear Guercy ,

In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week. 

We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.

VLCC Rates Go Ballistic as Hormuz Turns Into a Freight Jackpot

• VLCC prices are ballooning out of control (once again), pushing assessed earnings for a Middle East-to-China voyage beyond $500,000 per day as the flow of vessels moving out of the Gulf trickled down to a mere couple per day.

• Amidst news that Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings at its key Ras Tanura export terminal, VLCC fixing costs for inside-Hormuz cargoes jumped to a whopping $31 million per voyage, as seen this week with the Mongolia Prosperity supertanker.

• Saudi Aramco loaded at least three VLCCs (Malaysia Prosperity, Algeria Prosperity and Singapore Prosperity) in the Gulf last week, all owned by Sinokor, offering them to Asian buyers via ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah in the UAE on a prompt basis.

• Shipping rates are rising across Asia even though the number of empty VLCCs has dipped to its highest in 5 years, with only 372 supertankers currently loaded and 592 tankers ballasting. 

Market Movers

• Shares of Argentinian shale producer Vista Energy (NYSE:VIST) have jumped by more than 5% after billionaire Peter Thiel reported a $76 million stake in the company, equivalent to 1.2 million shares.

• US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) announced an oil and condensate discovery in Block 0 offshore Angola, hitting a 91-metre (300-feet) net oil pay with its 105-4X exploration well in the Lower Congo basin.

• London-based energy firm Shell (LON:SHEL) lost its litigation against environmental activists in South Africa, with the Constitutional Court ruling that it could not renew its rights to offshore exploration.

• US midstream giant Targa Resources (NYSE:TRGP) said it would build three new natural gas processing plants in the Permian Delaware basin with a combined processing capacity of 825 MMCf/d.

• Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has purchased 87% of Class A shares in the 1.5 GW Lackawanna combined-cycle power plant in Pennsylvania for $940 million from funds managed by BlackRock, boosting its gas-fired power generation portfolio. 

Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

Trump’s threats to bomb Oman and his Tuesday Truth Social post acknowledging there are no talks scheduled between the US and Iran have lifted oil prices again, with ICE Brent now trading at $91 per barrel. As the 60-day MoU is now officially a thing of the past and Houthi attacks on ships in and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait turning more assertive than ever, Trump’s Middle Eastern entanglements could well extend beyond the upcoming midterm elections, into Q4. 

China’s Refining Sector Crawls Off the Bottom. Chinese refinery runs jumped by 0.3% month-on-month in July to 12.5 million b/d—the first increase since the Iran war began—but remained 16% below last year levels as refiners drew an estimated 25–28 million barrels from domestic inventories.

Libya Puts a $40 Billion Price Tag on Its Oil Comeback. Libya’s National Oil Company says foreign investment of up to $40 billion is needed to lift production to 2 million b/d by the early 2030s, as international majors return despite persistent drone attacks and reoccurring protest closures.

Hormuz Oil Traffic Remains a Trickle. Just 6 commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, slightly up from Saturday’s three and Sunday’s two, with no VLCCs or LNG tankers visible as stalled US-Iran talks keep the Gulf’s main energy corridor effectively closed to large-scale shipping.

Trump Threatens to Bomb Oman. The US President warned the Omani government against obstructing negotiations with Iran as the failed ceasefire’s 60-day deadline expired, even though Oman remains the only party reporting progress toward a new Hormuz shipping arrangement.

Washington Pushes Maxed-Out Refineries for More Fuel. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Trump administration would soon unveil measures to boost US refinery throughput as the average gasoline price exceeds $4.06 a gallon, even though US plants are already running at record rates.

China Keeps Its Tankers Clear of Hormuz. China’s shipping giants COSCO and CMES, previously carrying half of the country’s Middle Eastern crude imports, have stopped entering Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, redeploying their fleet of more than 100 VLCCs to collect Gulf barrels from Fujairah and Oman.

Brazil Gets Hyped for Its Next Oil Frontier. Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) said crude recovered from its $300 million exploration well in the untapped Foz do Amazonas basin “looks very good”, seeking to expedite drilling as it already identified locations for the next 3 exploration wells.

US Diesel Cracks Smash Through $100. The US diesel crack soared to an all-time high of $102 per barrel, with middle distillate prices rising quicker than crude in 5 of the last 6 sessions as US distillate inventories fall to their lowest seasonal level since 1996 despite refiners maximizing diesel output.

Canada’s West Coast Pipeline Wins Producer Backing. EPAC members, representing more than 40% of Canadian oil output, have committed volumes to the proposed 1-million-b/d conduit as Ottawa considers fast-tracking the project to diversify exports beyond the US and pivot to Asian markets.

Beijing Eyes a Bigger Gas Buffer. Beijing plans to lift natural gas storage above 13% of annual consumption and expand pipeline-import capacity to 114 Bcm per year by 2030, strengthening supply security after underground storage more than doubled to 54 Bcm between 2020 and 2025.

Rhine Freight Retreats to Road and Rail. Navigable depth at Germany’s Kaub chokepoint on the River Rhine fell to a record low 9 cm, completely halting all navigation south of Frankfurt as freight is now being en masse transferred to land transport for fears of extremely shallow water. 

Jazan Comes Under Fire Again. The Houthis claimed a 3rd drone attack in two weeks on Saudi Aramco’s 400,000 b/d Jizan refinery, already out of operations until at least September after earlier damage, pushing even more Saudi crude toward Mediterranean loading points as security risks soar.

Drone Attack on Greek Ship Revive Black Sea Risks. The Greek-operated Suezmax tanker Skiros was attacked after loading Russian-origin crude at the CPC Terminal, reviving operational risks at a terminal handling almost 2% of global supply and serving as Kazakhstan’s dominant export route.

Best regards,

Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com