The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Monday, September 14, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Tomorrow, Brazil's Supreme Court votes on investigating one of its own
The full bench meets in extraordinary session on Petition 16,662: whether the Federal Police may open an inquiry into Justice Alexandre de Moraes, over his messages with Banco Master founder Daniel Vorcaro. O Globo reports no sitting justice has ever faced such a vote. A yes opens an inquiry — it decides nothing about guilt.
Brazil's Supreme Court votes tomorrow on investigating one of its own — a first in the court's history
Colombia's president wants police inside public universities — "autonomy is not a licence for impunity"
Argentina's poverty rate has stopped falling — and the IMF mission lands next week
The Banco Master asset freeze reaches a Picasso and two Basquiats held in the United States
Oil ended the week near US$105: ten million barrels a day are not being pumped
For expats: Colombia's peso at its firmest fixing since late August, Chile's UF at a fresh high
The state of the region
If you missed the last few days
Saturday we led with Bogotá closing its last peace table, and Sunday's edition of The Week walked through the seven days that put Brazil's own Supreme Court on trial. Today the story reaches its next chamber: the vote itself is tomorrow.
Good morning. Courts judge everyone; the hard question is who judges the court. On Tuesday at an extraordinary session, Brazil's eleven justices answer it about themselves. Petition 16,662 asks whether the Federal Police may open an inquiry into Alexandre de Moraes — the court's most powerful and most contested member — over messages exchanged with Daniel Vorcaro, the banker whose Banco Master collapsed last year. O Globo's count is stark: no sitting justice has ever faced such a vote.
Keep the procedure straight, because the week will confuse it. A yes does not convict anyone; it merely lets the police investigate. Court president Edson Fachin opened the file on 3 September and gave four officials — Moraes, Justice Mendonça, the Prosecutor-General and the Federal Police chief — five business days to explain themselves. That deadline expired on Friday. A second session on 23 September then examines Mendonça's own conduct as rapporteur of the Banco Master case.
The market has already voted with its feet. On Friday the Ibovespa slipped 0.56% and the real softened to 5.1264 while Wall Street rose almost a percent — local investors pricing exactly this noise, two days before the Copom is expected to cut the Selic to 13.75%. Institutional stability is the invisible asset in every Brazilian carry trade; tomorrow's session is a stress test of it, three weeks before the election.
Why it matters: However the vote goes, a precedent lands. A yes tells every future justice that the robe is not armour; a no tells the police and the public that some files stay closed. For markets, the vote sits inside a decisive week — Fed and Copom on Wednesday, election on 4 October — and it will shape how much political risk premium Brazil carries into both. Watch the tally, then watch the real.
Markets & commodities
Friday's close, 11 September.
BRAZIL IBOVESPA
187,207
−0.56%, real 5.1264
MEXICO IPC
63,816
−0.45%, peso 16.97 near high
ARG MERVAL
3,098,898
−1.87%, peso 1,508 firmer
COLOMBIA COLCAP
2,590
−1.41%, four wins snapped
CHILE IPSA
11,220
−0.16%, SQM −2.6% on court halt
GOLD
US$4,348
+0.77% Friday, −1.8% on the week
COPPER
US$14,233
first losing week since June
OIL
US$104.61
−2.8% Friday, +8.7% on the week
A red Friday across the whole region, even as Wall Street closed higher and the fear index tumbled. The Ibovespa slipped 0.56% as Brasília's Supreme Court noise drowned out New York; the Merval gave back 1.87% in simple profit-taking after its huge run; the COLCAP's four-session climb broke on softer oil. Mexico's IPC fell a fourth time in five sessions, yet the peso sits within a whisker of its 52-week high — the carry still pays. Chile's IPSA barely moved, but SQM sank 2.6% after a court halted towers for a lithium-region power line. The week's real story was oil: up nearly 9% in five days despite Friday's pullback, while bitcoin drifted to US$76,838 ahead of Wednesday's Fed. Today is positioning day: Brazil's business confidence reads mid-afternoon, China speaks tonight, and the Copom and the Fed decide on Wednesday.
Friday's sessions, country by country:
Brazil — Ibovespa 187,207 (−0.56%), real 5.1264, Itaú the bright spot
Argentina — Merval 3,098,898 (−1.87%), peso 1,508 firmer
Mexico — IPC 63,816 (−0.45%), peso 16.97 near its 52-week high
Colombia — COLCAP 2,590 (−1.41%), four straight gains snapped
Chile — IPSA 11,220 (−0.16%), SQM −2.6% on the court halt
The full market reports: Brazil's morning call · the pre-open · the regional pulse · copper · zinc · lithium · steel · grains
The big moves
Colombia's president wants police inside the universities › Thirty-six days into his term, Abelardo De la Espriella used a Sunday address to set out a security package that lets police enter public campuses when protests turn violent — university autonomy, he said, "is not a licence for impunity." He arrived with numbers: 17,147 arrests in 36 days, and a 2027 budget that leans heavily on borrowing. No decree is published yet, and the universities have not answered; when they do, the country's oldest protected square becomes the test of his presidency.
Argentina's poverty rate has stopped falling — and the IMF arrives next week › The Catholic University's observatory puts first-quarter poverty at 30%, up 3.1 points in two quarters — still a private estimate; the official INDEC figure lands 24 September. Three days before that, an IMF staff mission starts the third review of the US$20 billion programme. The peso, at 1,508, is holding; the social floor underneath it is the question now.
The Banco Master freeze now covers a Picasso, two Basquiats and the Miami houses › The order — signed by Justice Mendonça on 24 July at the Prosecutor-General's request, public only now — lists eleven valued items worth more than US$333 million held abroad, plus seven more without stated values. The Picasso alone is estimated near US$7.8 million. Courts in the United States, the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands have recognised the liquidation. Nobody in the case has been convicted of anything.
Ten million barrels a day are not being pumped — and every bank forecast sits below the market › Brent settled at US$104.61 Friday, up about nine percent on the week, after US and Iranian strikes on tankers cut Hormuz transits to seven vessels on Thursday. Saudi output in August was the lowest in more than thirty years; global inventories have drawn 507 million barrels since the war began. Every major bank forecast sits US$15–25 below Friday's close. For Petrobras, Ecopetrol and Mexico's peso, the mispricing is the opportunity — and the risk.
Expat & living
Your money goes further in Colombia this morning › The weekend TRM fixing of 3,072.27 per dollar — the firmest since 25 August — stays valid through today: a US$1,000 transfer now converts to COP 3,072,270. In Chile, the inflation-indexed UF crossed 40,900 for the first time and has risen every day for a month; if your Santiago rent is UF-denominated, it is now worth about US$44 per unit. And Guyana received its first six US-arranged transit arrivals under a migration cooperation framework — entry rules for expats unchanged.
Plan around the flags this week › Tomorrow night is El Grito in Mexico — the Zócalo fills, streets close — and Wednesday is Independence Day, with banks and offices shut. Costa Rica and Guatemala mark independence too, and Chile heads into Fiestas Patrias. The live calendar runs from Calamaro in Lima on Tuesday to Jamiroquai in Bogotá on Saturday, his first show there in 16 years.
Money, markets & business
Copper posted its first losing week since June — a run of ten straight weekly gains ended when the White House stalled its plan to tax imported refined metal; Chile and Peru still mine a third of world supply
Lithium fell 14% in three days on a counting change, not a new mine — a Chinese data provider revised its method and stockpiles doubled on paper; Ganfeng is threatening to abandon third-party price benchmarks
Zinc slipped to US$4,015 a tonne, but the US$143 spot premium says scarcity — exchange stocks drew down for a third straight day; Peru's output fell 10.2% in the first half even as export earnings rose
Brazilian steel shares split behind the 25% import barrier — Gerdau's New York line rose 0.98% on construction demand while CSN gave back 7.97% after a two-day jump, still up about 4% on the week
Grains fell after the USDA raised world wheat stocks — soy trackers dropped 2.27% as the US harvest competes with Brazilian and Argentine cargoes; a firmer real at 5.12 adds a headwind for farmers
Politics & the state
São Paulo is grieving and furious after a construction collapse in Penha killed six — the eleven-storey project had been embargoed and warned about for years; two survivors were pulled from the rubble, and the city's question is who answers for it
Chile's President Kast hit new approval lows — 62% of respondents call his term worse than expected, a sobering read as the country heads into Fiestas Patrias week
In Mexico, Puebla's governor is denying a US visa revocation rumor — the claim spread from a former official and is raising the political temperature ahead of tomorrow's Grito
The wider world, from our desks
The week turns on two Wednesday decisions — markets price roughly a 90% chance the Fed hikes a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, while Brazil's Copom is expected to cut the Selic to 13.75% the same day; the ECB already moved last week, and China's August data lands tonight. The US 10-year at 4.97% keeps the squeeze on every emerging-market currency in this email
Also from our newsroom
We publish Africa Intelligence each morning from this same desk, and The Week every Sunday — both regions in one narrative read. This morning's Africa edition leads on South Africa's bank watchdog: off the dirty-money grey list since October, and not one bank fined since — plus Dangote's fourth petrol rise and Africa's biggest IPO opening today.
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
