The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Friday, September 25, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Colombia broke with Iran — and its peso had the region's worst day.
The foreign ministry confirmed the break, effective 19 September: human rights, alleged Iranian links to terrorist and narcoterrorist groups, the Hormuz blockade, blocked UN inspectors. Consular services continue; everything else stops. Colombia is the second South American country to cut ties within three weeks — Peru went first on 1 September, also citing Hormuz. South America is quietly choosing a side in the Middle East war. The market's answer came the same session: the peso slid 2.43% to 3,287 per dollar, the sharpest drop in the region, as the post-Fed dollar surge hit every carry trade — and early Friday it traded weaker still. The rupture, the reasons, and the pattern.
Argentina's hardest data day: poverty at 32.3%, activity down 2.9% in July — and the Senate passed the central bank reform 46–22. The US$800 million payment is due today
Banxico held at 6.50% and told the Fed, in polite central-bank language, that Mexico is not a mirror — the peso still had its weakest close in months
Brazil's delegation walked out of Netanyahu's UN speech — two days after Lula accused Israel of genocide from the same podium
Mercado Livre will sell prescription GLP-1 drugs online — pharmacy stocks sank up to 8%
Venezuela at the UN: ‘there will be elections’ — no date, no month, no year
For expats: what the Fed's stronger dollar does to your rent, pension and transfers
The state of the region
If you missed the last few days
The week was supposed to be about central banks. It became about alignments: Lula opened the UN debate warning Trump off Brazil's election, Delcy promised elections without a date, Brazil walked out on Netanyahu — and Colombia broke with Iran. Meanwhile the dollar's post-Fed surge taxed every currency in the region.
Good morning. Argentina delivered the hardest data day of the Milei era. Poverty rose to 32.3% in the first half, up 4.1 points — among children under 14 it is 44.5%. July activity fell 2.9%, the steepest monthly drop outside the pandemic since 2019; August and September must each grow about 3% to avoid a technical recession. The same day, the Senate passed the central bank reform 46–22 — one mandate (protect the peso), no more financing governments — though deputies must vote again. And today the US$800 million payment falls due, with the IMF mission still in town. The Merval closed below three million points; country risk rose an eighth straight session.
Mexico chose divergence. Banxico held at 6.50% unanimously and explicitly declined to follow the Fed's hike — its own inflation path, its own call. The peso answered with a 1.10% slide to 17.72, its weakest close in months: the market prices the narrowing carry, not the independence. Brazil's story was geopolitical: the delegation walked out as Netanyahu began speaking, part of a coordinated emptying of the hall — Netanyahu called the leavers ‘moral cowards’. Nine days before the election, Lula's foreign policy is now a campaign argument in both directions.
Why it matters: The dollar is the region's referee this week: every central bank decision, every UN gesture and every election poll now gets priced through a stronger greenback. Today brings Brazil's IPCA-15 at 9:00 (consensus 0.53% m/m) and Argentina's payment. Next week: the US–Mexico trade talks, Colombia's emergency decree and Bolivia's 24-hour stoppage, all on Monday.
Markets & commodities
Thursday's close, 24 September — IPCA-15 lands today at 9:00 Brasília.
BRAZIL IBOVESPA
183,966
−0.99%, lost 184,000
MEXICO IPC
64,000
−0.43%, Banxico held
ARG MERVAL
2,939,964
−1.00%, below 3 million
CHILE IPSA
11,301
−1.30%, heaviest drop in the run
REAL · BR
5.193
−0.44%, IPCA-15 today 9:00
PESO · MX
17.72
−1.10%, weakest in months
PESO · CO
3,287
−2.43%, the region's worst
BRENT · GOLD · BTC
US$106.60 · US$4,265 · US$84,379
oil +3.4%, metals & crypto sag on the dollar
The full market reports: Brazil · Mexico · Argentina · Colombia · Chile.
Where the countries stand
The day's events, placed in the frame they belong to.
ColombiaThe rupture week: ties with Iran cut, the peso through 3,287, the pension-fund chief fired three days after taking office, and Ecopetrol handed to the president's campaign manager — no headhunter, starts Monday. The new government is moving fast; the market is charging for it.ArgentinaPoverty 32.3%, activity −2.9%, country risk rising eight sessions — and the IMF mission in town with the US$800 million due today. The Senate's central bank reform is the institutional counterweight: after this, no government prints its deficit again.BrazilNine days to the vote: the UN walkout gives both camps their clip, the election-interference claim reached two top courts, and Mercado Livre's GLP-1 move sank pharmacy stocks up to 8%. IPCA-15 at 9:00 sets the Selic path into November.MexicoBanxico held and disowned the Fed's hike; the peso paid anyway. Korea's president left with tariffs and car plants on the table — Mexico taxes Korean cars up to 50% — and Lego announced US$400 million for its biggest factory, in Monterrey, through 2029.VenezuelaDelcy Rodríguez told the UN: ‘there will be elections’ — no date, no month, no year. The New York week ends with the promise made in public and the timetable still owned by the palace.Chile & PeruThe IPSA had its heaviest fall of the run (−1.30%) as lithium sentiment dragged SQM. Peru — the first to break with Iran, on 1 September — posted 3.1% growth for January–July; the local vote is nine days out.
The big moves · two stories that travel
Banxico tells the Fed: not this time › The unanimous hold at 6.50% came with an explicit refusal to mirror Washington's hike — the statement argues Mexico's inflation path needs a different answer. The peso's 1.10% slide says traders still price the US gap first. For the carry trade that has defined Mexico all year, this is the first week the two central banks point in different directions.
Mercado Livre comes for the pharmacy counter › Prescription drugs — including GLP-1 weight-loss pens — will be sold online in São Paulo, with three chains joining in October and 20 partner pharmacies targeted by year-end. Pague Menos fell 8%, RD Saúde 5.4%. The pharmacy lobby calls it illegal until Anvisa finishes its rules; investors note that GLP-1 buyers spend about nine times the average customer. Brazil's retail drug model just met its platform moment.
Expat & living
The Fed's hike reaches your rent › What a stronger dollar means for dollar-paid expats across the region — transfers, rents, and why this month's exchange matters more than this year's rate path.
Colombia's peso at 3,287 › For dollar earners in Colombia the slide is a raise; for anyone earning pesos, it is the opposite. Today's Expat & Nomad Guide has the practical detail.
Money, markets & business
Lego spends US$400 million on its biggest factory — Monterrey's third expansion, through 2029
CMPC's packaging sale hands Smurfit Westrock a US$420 million business — Chile's paper giant exits a segment
Suzano raises pulp prices US$50 a tonne in the Americas — the October list is out
Vale cleared to restart the Fábrica mine — a Minas Gerais court lifts the stop
Peru grew 3.1% in January–July — the region's quiet outperformer
Stablecoins are Latin America's digital dollars — the region uses them more than any other
Politics & the state
Brazil's election-interference claim reached two top courts — nine days before the vote, the judiciary is a campaign actor
Korea's president came to Mexico with tariffs and car plants on the table — Kia and Samsung are the stakes
Guatemala raided 13 properties tied to Giammattei's former aide — the last government's files keep opening
Afya and Yduqs signed their merger — Brazil's education giants become one
The Vorcaro property searches are public — the Supreme Court lifted secrecy in the Banco Master case
The wider world & the weekend
The Friday Pulse — the region's morning read in one page
The Global Economy Briefing — the world the region wakes into
Brazil's morning call — IPCA-15 at 9:00, consensus 0.53% m/m
Also from our newsroom
Our Africa desk went out this morning with Kenya's minerals moment: the Mrima Hill rare-earths tender has two American bidders on the shortlist, Ruto told the UN the continent wants investment not aid, and Brent at US$106.60 is taxing every fuel importer on the continent. Find it on riotimesonline.com.
That's Friday. A week that began with three central banks ends with the region choosing sides — in New York, on Iran, and against the dollar's tide. Monday brings the US–Mexico talks, Colombia's decree and Bolivia's stoppage. Tell me what you need more of — I read every reply.
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
