The Rio Times Africa Intelligence

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher

Cairo sees no need for a new IMF loan as its PM puts Suez Canal income near US$4.4 billion

Egypt's government says it sees no need for a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme when the current US$8 billion loan expires on 15 December. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in an interview reported on Sunday 4 October that the economy can now grow without one. In the same interview he said Suez Canal income has risen again to about US$4.4 billion, against roughly US$10 billion a year before Red Sea shipping was disrupted. For readers in the US and Europe, two things meet here: the shipping shortcut that links their markets to Asia, and the finances of a government whose IMF programme ends on 15 December. Cairo says it can manage. Whether it can do so without the Fund's outside reviews, while canal income stays well below the level before the disruption, is the open question.

Also in today's brief

Kenya's central bank decides on rates on Wednesday 7 October; the rate stands at 8.75%

South Africa's petrol hits a record R30.25 (US$1.82) a litre in Gauteng on Wednesday, as Brent averaged US$101

Kenya approved a route for local investors into the Dangote refinery share sale in Nigeria

Morocco ordered 50 more tank transporters from Wisconsin-based Oshkosh Defense

Kenya's September PMI rose to 51.3 from 49.7, back above the growth line

The state of the continent

If you missed the last few days

On Friday and Saturday we followed the rift between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt. On Monday we led with Uganda, where the army's chief threatened a missing activist the army says it does not hold. Today we turn to Egypt, and to what its government plans once the IMF loan ends.

Good morning. In South Africa, 95 unleaded petrol in Gauteng reaches a record R30.25 (US$1.82) a litre on Wednesday, when the monthly regulated fuel prices reset. Diesel, which trucks and farms run on, rises by R2.84 to R3.24 (US$0.17 to US$0.19) a litre, depending on grade. The department of mineral and petroleum resources says Brent crude averaged US$101 a barrel over the pricing period, up from US$87.89, and the rand was roughly flat. Oil is therefore the main driver.

Oil is one reason central banks are watching. Kenya's central bank decides on rates on Wednesday 7 October at the 8.75% level, with inflation at 6.8% in September. Stanbic Bank's Kenya PMI, a survey where 50 separates growth from contraction, rose to 51.3 in September from 49.7, while firms report that fuel and transport costs still hold output back.

In Egypt, Suez Canal income, which Madbouly says is recovering but still far below its peak, is one of the country's main sources of US dollars. He also says Egypt wants to spread its foreign-currency income more widely to absorb outside shocks. The pound trades at about 52 per dollar, and urban inflation was 14.5% in August.

Why it matters: In our reading, the IMF loan has acted as an outside check on Egypt's reforms, including the sale of state companies. The IMF said in July that this effort had "progressed more slowly than anticipated", with about US$520 million raised by then. When the programme expires on 15 December, that check ends, and investors in Egyptian bonds, including those in the US and Europe, may price in extra risk. Shippers care for a different reason: the Suez Canal is the shortcut between Europe and Asia, and lower canal income means fewer dollars for Egypt. Two signs point up. Canal transits rose 27% in August from a year earlier, the Suez Canal Authority says, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on 14 September that four more services would return to Suez while they watch the security situation. Two things could tip it: new tension in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz, which Madbouly himself named, or a failed final IMF review. Not known: what Egypt's own post-IMF plan will contain, and whether the IMF completes its final review.

African currencies & commodities

Per US dollar, Monday 5 October close. Reference: EODHD; birr, shilling and CFA franc from open.er-api, 6 October.

BIRR · ET

161.3

Horn of Africa

POUND · EG

52.20

stronger by 0.2%

RAND · ZA

16.64

little changed

OIL · BRENT FUND

−2.6%

BNO, Monday

NAIRA · NG

1,325

stronger by 0.4%

SHILLING · KE

129.8

open.er-api

CFA FRANC · XOF

585.1

euro peg

GOLD

US$4,134

spot, Monday

Where the regions stand

East AfricaTanzania's stock market lost 1.08% of its value, US$166 million, in the week to Friday 2 October. In Sudan, parallel-market petrol costs nearly double the official price, a sign of a dollar shortage rather than a lack of oil.West AfricaBenin closed a 12-year bank financing of US$563 million on 18 September, backed by an African Development Fund guarantee and Islamic Development Bank Group insurance. Liberia received about US$50 million from the IMF after its board completed two reviews on 28 September.North AfricaMorocco picked the listed builder SGTM for the main Fez stadium upgrade at US$285 million ahead of the 2030 World Cup. Egypt's IMF plans and Suez income lead today's brief.Southern AfricaSouth African farms hit by foot-and-mouth disease must still pay the R30.23 (US$1.82) hourly minimum wage, with only a temporary partial exemption possible. Cape Town unveiled a plan to replace its unfinished 1970s highways, with no cost estimate yet.

The big moves · two stories that travel

Kenya opened a local route into Nigeria's Dangote refinery share sale › On Monday 5 October the Capital Markets Authority approved a prospectus from Renaissance Capital (Kenya) for depositary receipts, which are tradable certificates that stand in for foreign shares. The offer is 4.1 billion shares at 525 naira (about US$0.40) each, so Kenyans can buy from home. It works much like the American depositary receipts that let US investors own foreign companies. The Nairobi listing still needs approval from Nigeria's securities regulator, and the size of Kenyan demand is unknown.

Morocco ordered 50 more heavy tank transporters from a Wisconsin maker › Oshkosh Defense announced the second Moroccan order for its HET A1 tractor, with 50 trailers, on Monday 5 October. Oshkosh Corporation trades on the New York Stock Exchange as OSK. The first order, placed in September 2024, has been delivered and is in service, the company says. Neither price nor delivery date was disclosed for the new one. For US readers, it is one of the clearer links between Wisconsin factory floors and North African defence budgets.

Expat & living

Malawi's central bank limits individuals to US$1,000 in foreign cash without permission › The notice is dated 7 September and appeared in the Gazette on 18 September. Reserves are below the recommended three months of import cover. Anyone planning to live or invest there should expect slow access to dollars and move payments months, not weeks, ahead. The government rules out a devaluation.

Money, markets & business

Kenya's Quickmart share sale values the supermarket chain at US$232 million, and is closed to the US public  ·  Two foreign banks have applied to open in Ethiopia, the central bank confirmed  ·  The naira closed below 1,500 per euro on 2 October, mostly because the euro fell

The state and its citizens

Kenya's president raised this year's teacher promotions to 50,000 slots  ·  Nigerian challenger Atiku asks the state oil firm to itemise US$8.4 billion it counts as owed by the state  ·  A former aide to South Africa's sport minister now runs the cricket World Cup ticket firm

The wider world, from our desks

US 10-year Treasury yields rise to 5.31%, our Global Economy briefing reports  ·  What prediction markets say about Brazil's 25 October runoff, from our Latin America desk

Also from our newsroom

Today: Brazil's Ibovespa jumps 7.7% to a record after the first round ›

Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times