The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Thursday, October 15, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
US lifts sanctions on Venezuela's National Assembly chief
The US Treasury on Wednesday 14 October removed Jorge Rodríguez, president of Venezuela's National Assembly, from its sanctions list, and gave no reason. Rodríguez is the brother of acting president Delcy Rodríguez and a key government negotiator with Washington, and the US first sanctioned him on 25 September 2018. The removal means US companies and individuals can generally deal with him, but it does not by itself lift other US measures. Delcy Rodríguez was delisted on 1 April 2026, so the step extends a pattern of Washington unwinding the sanctions it built around Nicolás Maduro's circle.
For US readers, the list decides who can be paid, hired or hosted, and oil companies and bondholders watch it closely. Whether the delisting comes with any licence or conditions is not known.
Healthcare in Argentina for Expats 2026: The Free System Has Conditions Now
Inside: What the Decree Did · The Limit Most Commentary Misses · What Care Costs If You Pay.
Also in today's brief
Chile: Escondida supervisors approve a new BHP contract, with 64% of the votes cast in favour, and avert the strike
Brazil: the Senate passes the end of the six-day work week by 75 votes to 1
Chile: pension funds face a paper loss of about US$7.7 billion on bets that US interest rates would fall
Mexico: a US air-safety audit lists 21 gaps Mexico must close to keep its top rating
Mexico: soldiers arrest an alleged Sinaloa Cartel financier wanted in California
The state of the region
If you missed the last few days
On Monday we led with Hurricane Simon in Mexico, on Tuesday with the IMF's lower growth forecasts for Brazil and Argentina, and on Wednesday with the strike threat at Chile's Escondida copper mine. Today the lead moves to Venezuela, where the US has lifted sanctions on a key government negotiator, while Brazil's runoff drew Argentina's president into the fight and the Escondida strike was averted.
Good morning. Venezuela's sanctions list is shrinking, and Brazil's runoff is the region's other big story. Brazil votes in a runoff on Sunday 25 October, and the race is tight. The first Quaest poll since the first round, released on Wednesday, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 46% and Lula 44%, a statistical tie.
The betting. On Polymarket, a US prediction market, traders put Flávio Bolsonaro's chance of winning the runoff at 83.0% and Lula's at 16.5% (15 October, 2:47 a.m. ET). Those prices are bets, not polls, and they imply a wider edge than Quaest's tie.
Argentina. President Javier Milei called Lula “the communist dictator” at a Washington gala on Wednesday 14 October and predicted a win for Flávio Bolsonaro. Milei is a close ally of US President Donald Trump.
Venezuela. Traders on Polymarket put the chance that Delcy Rodríguez is Venezuela's de facto leader at the end of 2026 at 93.5% (15 October, 2:47 a.m. ET). Those are bets, not polls.
The platforms. The federal prosecutors' citizen-rights office gave Meta and X five days on Wednesday 14 October to explain reported cases of blocked accounts and deleted posts during the campaign. It is a fact-finding step, with no charges or fines.
Chile. Supervisors at the Escondida copper mine approved a new 36-month contract with BHP on Wednesday 14 October, so the strike we flagged yesterday did not happen. About 64% of the votes cast backed the company's final offer.
The data today. Brazil's August retail sales are due today, Thursday 15 October, at 9 a.m. in São Paulo (8 a.m. ET), after a 0.8% fall in July.
Why it matters: In our reading, the common thread is how much Washington shapes Latin America's biggest decisions. The US lifted sanctions on a key Venezuelan negotiator, a foreign president took sides in Brazil's vote on US soil, and two US platforms face questions over campaign moderation. That matters to US holders of Petrobras, Vale and other Brazilian ADRs, to oil companies watching Venezuela, and to US buyers of Chilean copper now that the Escondida strike has been averted. Not known: why the Treasury acted, and whether Brazil responds officially to Milei's speech.
Power Index
Venezuela ranks 13th of 14 in The Rio Times Power Index, with 27.0 points. Its strongest pillar is military means and its weakest is economic relationships.
See the Power Map ›
Markets & commodities
Wednesday's close, 14 October. Index, FX and ETF reference: EODHD.
IBOVESPA
206,506
−0.18%
S&P 500
7,719
−1.11%
REAL · BR
5.03
dollar little changed
PESO · MX
18.50
dollar higher by 0.7%
EWW · MEXICO ETF
US$72.70
−0.7%
PETROBRAS ADR
US$25.94
+1.7%
OIL FUND (USO)
US$153.56
+0.3%
GOLD FUND (GLD)
US$375.99
−1.5%
Brazil's Wednesday report has the session in detail: the Ibovespa fell 0.18% to 206,505.98, still 1.2% below the record close of 209,066.90 on Friday 9 October, and the dollar closed near R$5.03. Mexico's report shows the IPC losing 0.26% to about 66,790 as the peso weakened about 0.7% to 18.50 per US$1. Today's Morning Call covers B3 ahead of the retail data, and the LatAm Pre-Open covers the region after the Asia sell-off.
The full market reports: Brazil · Mexico · Chile · Colombia · Argentina · oil · copper · gold & silver · iron ore
Where the countries stand
BrazilThe Senate passed the constitutional amendment ending the six-day work week by 75 votes to 1 on Wednesday 14 October. It cuts the maximum week from 44 to 42 hours 60 days after promulgation and to 40 hours a year later, and the amendment now goes to promulgation.MexicoThe lower house passed the 2027 income tax reform by 322 votes to 115 on Wednesday 14 October, capping deductions for companies with yearly income above 50 million pesos (about US$2.7 million); the Senate must still vote. A US aviation audit listed 21 gaps in Mexico’s air safety oversight, and US inspectors return in December before a verdict in February 2027.ArgentinaMilei is due to speak at the US Chamber of Commerce today, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright giving the opening remarks, in a visit that pitches Vaca Muerta shale to US investors.ChileProsecutors are examining seven contracts between state oil company ENAP and the law firm of Gabriel Zaliasnik, Chile’s ambassador to Israel, with ENAP’s records showing more than US$1 million in payments from 2019 to 2025. He has not been formally charged, and opposition lawmakers want President Kast to recall him.PeruDefence Minister Rafael Belaunde met US Ambassador Bernie Navarro and Southern Command chief General Francis Donovan in Iquitos on Wednesday 14 October to step up joint work against illegal mining and organised crime. OAS member states chose Peru by acclamation to chair their anti-crime forum for 2026 to 2028.ColombiaThe IMF cut Colombia's 2026 growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.3% in April, and sees unemployment rising from 8% in 2025 to 10% in 2027.Central America & CaribbeanHonduran congressional leaders aim to pass a gang reform on Monday 19 October, which would bar parole for people convicted of terrorism. Panama opened a public trust and announced a private one to pay for earthquake repairs.
The big moves · two stories that travel
AT&T agrees to sell its Mexican business for US$2 billion › AT&T said on Tuesday 13 October that a 50-50 venture of Grupo Televisa and Fintech Holdings, owned by investor David Martínez, will buy AT&T Mexico, the country's second-largest mobile operator with about 24.7 million subscribers at the end of 2025. Mexico's competition authority and other regulators must approve, and the buyers expect to close in the first quarter of 2027. For US investors, the deal ends AT&T's push into Mexico and gives Televisa, which is listed in New York, a mobile business to compete with Carlos Slim's market leader Telcel.
Chile’s pension funds face a US$7.7 billion paper loss on bets that US rates would fall › Chile’s regulator reports that the private funds’ interest rate swaps, contracts that pay off if US rates fall, were worth about minus US$7.7 billion in September. Those bets lost value as US yields rose, including the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate rise on 16 September, to between 3.75% and 4%. For savers, Fund E, the safest of five funds, lost 10.39% after inflation from January to September. How much of the paper loss becomes real depends on US rates and on how fast the managers close their positions.
Expat & living
Rio's Galeão airport plans more flights to the US › Aena, the Spanish operator now running the airport, said on Tuesday 13 October it plans to resume or open flights to New York and Dallas and add frequencies to Miami and Atlanta by January 2027. Airlines, not the airport, will set the final dates and frequencies. If you plan a trip for the southern summer, watch for fare announcements before you book.
Machu Picchu tickets will go on sale up to a year ahead › Culture Minister Alberto Beingolea said on Wednesday 14 October that buyers must pay at once, because unpaid reservations will not return. The date the one-year window opens has not been announced, so check the official ticket platform only.
Planning the day? Read today’s LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide.
Money, markets & business
Petrobras produced 2.96 million barrels of oil a day in September, up 1% from August · Uruguay announced a US$5.7 billion data centre and solar investment by Spain's Solaria on Wednesday 14 October · Southern Copper filed a US$471 million plan for changes at its Toquepala mine in Peru
Politics & the state
Bukele is weighing supervised early release for about half of the prisoners jailed for helping gangs · Mexican soldiers arrested an alleged Sinaloa Cartel financier, wanted in California on a cocaine charge, near Mazatlán
The wider world, from our desks
Senegal bondholders with about US$2.2 billion warn Dakar against a haircut, from our Africa desk · Our Europe Intelligence Brief for Wednesday 14 October
Also from our newsroom
We publish Africa Intelligence each morning from this same desk, and The Week every Sunday.
Today: Eritrea accuses Ethiopia at the UN of eyeing a Red Sea port ›
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
