Alex Krainer:
Europe seems to be headed for an epic fall and a dramatic collapse of its influence and relevance:

The amount of the Russian assets in the West is estimated at $300 to $335 Billion. Most of these assets by far are held in Europe: the largest portion is managed by Belgium-based Euroclear central securities depository, which holds around $190 to $208 billion.

France holds up to $71 billion in Russian Central Bank assets, but there’s suspicion that the Macron government already helped themselves to much of that money. According to the more recent figures, only about $25.6 billion of the Russian money remains in French custody. The UK holds about $37 billion of Russian assets. At the same time, the US portion is estimated at only $5 billion to $8 billion, primarily in debt securities and cash.

https://trendcompass.substack.com/p/fall-of-europe-and-its-geostrategic?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3150968&post_id=221279118&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=59tai3&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

During his recent appearance at the Warsaw Security Forum, Poland’s British Agent Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated that those assets would be returned to Russia, “over our dead bodies.” Indeed, Russia is unlikely to see the return of those assets any time soon, but both the Kremlin and their American counterparts might be interested in transferring the totality of those assets to US custody.
Trump will likely be keenly interested to have Russia invest that money in the US. For their part, the Russians have every reason in the world to accommodate Trump and such an investment deal would certainly go a long way to advancing the two powers’ cooperation...
For the collateral starved British financial system, this could prove catastrophic. The same is true for Europe: Emmanuel Macron‘s dream of using $260 billion in frozen Russian assets as collateral for reconstruction investments was also meant to underpin a large-scale credit impulse in Europe. The reconstruction [of Ukraine] was meant to be financed by European banks and the contracts awarded to European corporations. Unfortunately, none of that will be possible without strong backing by the United States.
One day soon, the news will report that Trump has ordered that the Russian assets held in Europe be transferred to US custody. The Eurotards will have no recourse but to comply.
If (when?) the transfer of Russia’s frozen assets comes on the agenda, the EU will sustain a crippling financial blow.