The Rio Times LatAm Market Brief
Monday, October 26, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Brazil re-elects Lula by 4.4 million votes, and his rival says he will ask courts to annul it
Brazil stayed up late and woke up to a country split almost down the middle. Lula, the 80-year-old president, won Sunday’s runoff with 51.79% of valid votes to 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The electoral court counts a gap of about 4.4 million votes. Flávio Bolsonaro says he will ask courts to annul the vote, and cites a two-hour extension of voting ordered by a Supreme Court justice. For US investors in Brazilian stocks and ADRs, the US-listed receipts of Brazilian shares, no government changes hands, so the question moves to the budget, the cabinet and a rival who has not conceded.
Moving to Brazil From the UK: 2026 Visa and Residency Guide
Inside: Moving to Brazil: visas and entry rules · Digital Nomad Visa (VITEM XIV) · CPF and Federal Police Registration.
Also in today's brief
Brazil: the central bank’s committee decides the Selic interest rate, now 13.75%, on Wednesday 4 November
Chile: the central bank decides its rate on Tuesday 27 October, and traders expect no change from 4.5%
Mexico: President Sheinbaum says a tariff deal with the US is “very close”, and Mexico wants lower duties on steel, aluminium and cars
Venezuela: opposition leader María Corina Machado says “I’m here” after almost 10 months abroad
Haiti: the UN says more than 10,000 people fled gang violence in four days
The state of the region
If you missed the last few days
On Saturday we led with the last polls before the runoff, on Friday with a tied poll by Datafolha, a Brazilian pollster, and on Thursday with prosecutors suing Meta over account bans. Today the lead is the result.
Good morning. Lula will govern Brazil for a fourth term. Our Data Room above has the result and every poll, and a market reopening, a central bank and a tariff negotiation carry the rest.
The markets. B3, the São Paulo stock exchange, reopens today for its first full session since the result. Friday’s close is the only hard reference: the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, ended at 205,083 and the real at 4.98 per dollar. The central bank’s Selic interest rate is 13.75%, and its rate committee, called Copom, decides on Wednesday 4 November.
Chile. Chile’s central bank announces its decision on Tuesday 27 October, with the rate at 4.5%, where it has stood since December. Traders expect no change. Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, so its peso moves with the metal.
Venezuela. María Corina Machado, the opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, posted “I’m here. With you” on Sunday 25 October, after almost 10 months abroad. Edmundo González, the opposition’s 2024 presidential candidate, said she is in Venezuelan territory, and how the government will react is not known.
Haiti. The UN said on Friday 23 October that more than 10,000 people fled armed violence in four days, more than 7,000 of them from Petite-Rivière de l’Artibonite, a town north of Port-au-Prince, and more than 3,000 from Arcahaie, in the West Department. The UN’s 2026 aid appeal for Haiti is only 49% funded.
Why it matters: In our reading, the thread today is how a result that changes nothing in government still reprices everything around it: a rival who will not concede, a currency that must hold below five reais per dollar at the open, and a promise to regulate digital platforms. For US readers, Brazilian ADRs and the tech firms that operate in Brazil are the exposed names. Not known: whether Flávio Bolsonaro files in court, how B3 and the real trade at the open, and what Lula’s social media rules would require.
The Rio Times Power Index · October 2026 edition
Our index scores 14 Latin American countries on pillars such as state capacity and security, economic relationships and future resources. The top five:
1Brazil75.02Mexico71.43Chile63.64Argentina61.25Peru54.7
In focus: Chile. Chile ranks 3rd of 14 with 63.6 points. Its strongest pillar is state capacity and security, and its weakest is diplomatic and cultural influence. It sits in the Closer to Washington group.
See the full Power Map ›
Members: full country profiles and the data ›
Markets & commodities
Friday’s close, 23 October; Brazil’s markets reopen today. Index, FX and ETF reference: EODHD.
IBOVESPA
205,083
+0.47%
S&P 500
7,624
−0.52%
REAL · BR
4.98
stronger by 1.3%
PESO · MX
18.67
stronger by 0.2%
EWW · MEXICO ETF
US$75.26
+0.4%
PETROBRAS ADR
US$26.16
+2.1%
OIL FUND (USO)
US$169.53
+4.3%
GOLD FUND (GLD)
US$366.61
−0.6%
Brazilian assets rose into the vote on Friday, with the real strengthening 1.3% to R$4.98 per dollar. Brazil’s Friday report has the Ibovespa up 0.47% before the runoff, and Chile’s report follows the IPSA, its main index, ahead of Tuesday’s rate decision. The copper report covers the metal that drives Chile’s peso.
The full market reports: Brazil · Mexico · Chile · Colombia · Argentina · oil · copper
Where the countries stand
BrazilSupreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours, to 7 p.m. Brasília time, after Lula’s campaign reported public transport outages in nine states; Flávio Bolsonaro cites the extension in seeking annulment.ChileThe IPSA, Chile’s main stock index, slipped 0.31% on Friday as the peso weakened.ColombiaColombia’s President Abelardo De la Espriella’s Plan Energía YA rewards households that cut power use more than 10% below their target, as El Niño threatens supply.ArgentinaPresident Javier Milei says he will send Congress a bill to toughen sanctions on companies that drill off the Falkland Islands, which Argentina claims as the Malvinas.
The big moves · two stories that travel
Lula says social media will have to be regulated › In his victory speech on Sunday 25 October, Lula said of the digital platforms, “we are going to have to regulate them”. He accused tech giants of earning billions, paying no tax and trying to sway the vote. For US readers, Meta, Google and X run large businesses in Latin America’s biggest country, though no bill or timetable has been named.
Mexico says a US tariff deal is “very close” › President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday 20 October that a trade deal with the United States is very close, and President Donald Trump has said the same, though she added that some issues are unresolved. Mexico wants lower US tariffs on steel and aluminium, now 50%, and on cars, now 25%. US carmakers and steel buyers face unchanged tariffs until a text appears, and rates, concessions and any signing date are unknown.
Expat & living
Today’s LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide › Foreign residents in Colombia with an older permanent-resident visa must transfer it online before Saturday 31 October, so start this week. The US National Hurricane Center expects Hurricane Vance, a storm out in the Pacific off Mexico, to weaken, but its swells are forecast to bring dangerous surf to Mexico’s southwestern coast and Baja California.
Money, markets & business
A ten-day strike at Chile’s Centinela copper mine ended with a three-year contract and a 24 million peso (about US$24,100) bonus
Politics & the state
Lula’s 64,256,232 votes are the most any Brazilian presidential candidate has won, up from his 60,345,999 in 2022
The wider world, from our desks
Our Latin American Pulse for Monday 26 October
Serbia held a snap parliamentary election on Sunday 25 October, with a student-led list challenging Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party
Also from our newsroom
We publish Africa Intelligence each morning from this same desk, and The Week every Sunday.
Today: fighting between two Ethiopian regions in the border town of Moyale sends families into Kenya ›
Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
