The Rio Times Africa Intelligence
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
By Matthias Camenzind, Publisher
Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban choose new city councils today
South Africans vote on Wednesday 4 November in local elections that choose the councils running every city, including Johannesburg, the country’s biggest city. National Treasury, the finance ministry, has said it will stay in Johannesburg for three years whoever wins, after warning in April that it could withhold funding. The mayor, Dada Morero of the governing African National Congress (ANC), said in May that the city is “definitely not bankrupt”. Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market, put the chance that Helen Zille of the Democratic Alliance (DA) becomes mayor at 56.5%, and on Kalshi, a US-regulated one, at 62% (1:32 a.m. Eastern, 4 November); those are bets, not polls. How the parties form coalitions after the count is not yet known.
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Also in today's brief
South Africa: voting stations open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time at 23,696 sites on Wednesday 4 November
Johannesburg: the city and its main workers’ union signed a wage-deal addendum on Tuesday for a settlement worth about US$619 million
United States: AGOA trade preferences now run to 31 December 2028; a 12.5% US tariff on seven African economies stands
Kenya: jurist Phoebe Okowa was elected to a full nine-year term on the International Court of Justice
Kenya: South Africa’s Nedbank took control of about 66% of NCBA Group in a deal valued at about US$835 million
Tanzania: the High Court is due to give judgment in opposition leader Tundu Lissu’s treason trial on Friday 6 November
The state of the continent
If you missed the last few days
On Tuesday we led with Congo’s Ebola toll and the US travel rule, on Monday with South Africa waiting for Washington’s ruling on its trade access, and on Saturday with Russia’s veto of a US text on the Western Sahara mission. Today the lead is South Africa’s local elections.
Good morning. South Africa votes today, Democrats have taken the US Congress, and Senegal’s parliament has thrown out the government’s revised budget.
The vote. South Africans choose their city and town councils today. Voting stations open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time, which is midnight to 2 p.m. Eastern, and councils then elect the mayors who run city services. Not known: whether any party wins an outright majority in the big cities.
United States. Democrats are projected to win both chambers of the US Congress, taking their seats on 3 January 2027, so the trade rules that matter most to Africa stay as they are for now. AGOA, the US trade-preference law, now runs to 31 December 2028 for 33 eligible countries, while a 12.5% US tariff set in July on seven African economies, including South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt, rests on executive power. Not known: whether the new Congress takes up either.
Johannesburg. The city and its main municipal union, Samwu, signed a wage-deal addendum on Tuesday on the eve of the vote, and Gauteng’s provincial government says the settlement, worth about US$619 million, binds whoever runs the city next. Not known: whether the new council honours it.
Kenya. Kenyan jurist Phoebe Okowa was elected on Tuesday to a full nine-year term on the International Court of Justice, the UN’s main court. South Africa’s Nedbank has taken control of about 66% of Kenya’s NCBA Group in a deal valued at about US$835 million, with final totals due around 5 November.
Senegal. The National Assembly rejected the revised 2026 budget on Tuesday 3 November without a debate, after deputies backed a procedural motion called the preliminary question. Pastef, the party that dominates parliament, holds 130 of the 165 seats.
Money. The naira weakened 0.5% against the US dollar on Tuesday, while the Egyptian pound and South African rand were little changed: the table below has the moves. Our economic calendar expects South Africa’s October business-activity index (S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ survey) today at 50.2, up from 49.0, and Ghana’s October inflation on Thursday 5 November at 5.4%, up from 5.2%.
Why it matters: In our reading, the thread today is who controls the money: South Africa’s voters pick the councils that spend it, Treasury has already said it will watch Johannesburg’s books whoever wins, and Senegal’s parliament has blocked its government’s revised budget. For US readers, the first touches investors in South African city debt and the second those holding Senegal’s bonds. Not known: what Senegal’s government does next.
African currencies & commodities
Per US dollar, Tuesday 3 November close. Reference: RT market data, a financial data provider, for the pound, rand, naira, oil fund and gold fund (US-listed funds, BNO and GLD, not spot prices); birr, shilling and CFA franc are ExchangeRate-API (a currency-data service) spot rates from Wednesday 00:02 UTC. Changes are against the Monday 2 November close.
BIRR · ET
161.7
spot rate
POUND · EG
55.31
stronger by 0.1%
RAND · ZA
16.62
weaker by 0.1%
OIL · BRENT FUND
US$66.11
Brent oil fund, up 0.2%
NAIRA · NG
1,343.82
weaker by 0.5%
SHILLING · KE
130.0
spot rate
CFA FRANC · W. AFRICA
586
pegged to the euro
GOLD FUND
US$359.26
down 0.7%
Where the regions stand
West AfricaCabo Verde, an Atlantic island nation, votes for a president on Sunday 15 November; a runoff would follow on 29 November if no candidate wins a majorityNorth AfricaMorocco’s broad money grew 12.2% in September to 2,237.9 billion dirhams (about US$228 billion), Bank Al-Maghrib, the central bank, says
The big moves · two stories that travel
Senegal’s parliament throws out the revised 2026 budget › Deputies voted 109 to 20, with three abstentions, for the motion that ended the text on Tuesday without a debate. The government now has to decide whether to resubmit it or govern on existing credits. Holders of Senegal’s dollar bonds should watch that choice. Not known: how the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global lender, reacts.
Tanzania’s opposition leader hears his treason verdict on Friday › A three-judge panel of the High Court in Dar es Salaam is due to rule on Friday 6 November on Tundu Lissu, who chairs the opposition party Chadema. He pleaded not guilty and says the case is political; the charge can carry the death penalty. Not known: whether the court convicts, acquits or delays again.
Expat & living
Thinking of Tunisia? Americans get 90 days visa-free › US citizens can enter without a visa for tourist stays of up to 90 days, so the first decision is whether you plan to stay longer. Staying longer means applying for a residence permit before the 90 days run out.
Cape Town for New Year’s Eve? Book the trip around Thursday 31 December › The We Love Summer festival returns to The Port, a large venue in the city, that night, with tickets sold through Howler, a ticketing platform. Accommodation in Cape Town peaks over the New Year week, so book early.
The full map
Money, markets & business
Our report on Nedbank taking control of Kenya’s NCBA Group
Our oil report for Tuesday 3 November, relevant for Nigeria and Angola
Our gold and silver report for Tuesday 3 November, relevant for Ghana and South Africa
Our copper report for Tuesday 3 November, relevant for Zambia and Congo
Our report on how Nigeria’s stock market opened November
Our report on Egypt’s October business survey
The state and its citizens
Our report on Johannesburg’s wage deal signed on election eve
Our guide to Johannesburg, the South African city at the centre of today’s vote
Our explainer on Western Sahara after the UN mission ends
The wider world, from our desks
Our report on what the US vote means for African trade
Our Global Economy briefing for 4 November
Our USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Tuesday 3 November
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Prediction Markets Weekly
Odds on elections, currencies and policy, every Sunday. Latin America, Africa and Spain, with the money behind each price and a plain-English note on why it matters.
Last Sunday’s lead: Brazil justice exit: odds fall to 6.5% from 24.6%
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Matthias Camenzind
Publisher, The Rio Times
